新医改十年四川省城乡卫生人力资源公平性及趋势预测研究  

Study on the fairness and trend prediction of urban and rural health human resourcesin Sichuan Province during the new medical reform ten years

作　　者：田丹 何思长 周明华[2] 杨长皓 TIAN Dan;HE Si-zhang;ZHOU Ming-Hua;YANG Chang-hao(The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University,Luzhou Sichuan 646000,China;Luzhou People s Hospital,Luzhou Sichuan 646000,China)

机构地区：[1]西南医科大学附属医院,四川泸州646000 [2]泸州市人民医院,四川泸州646000

出　　处：《卫生软科学》2021年第8期52-55,共4页Soft Science of Health

基　　金：西南医科大学附属医院院内项目-医院高端人才培养与引进机制建设的研究(14095);泸州市人民政府-西南医科大学科技战略合作项目(2020LZXNYDR10)。

摘　　要：[目的]分析新医改以来四川省城乡卫生人力资源配置公平性情况,并预测2030年城乡卫生人力资源数量,为实现“健康四川2030”提供数据支撑。[方法]对2009-2018年城乡卫生人力资源进行描述性分析的基础上,通过基尼系数测算其公平程度,然后采用灰色预测法进行数据的预测分析。[结果]新医改十年来,卫技人员、执业(助理)医师、注册护士的每千人口数从3.37人、1.54人、1.01人增加到6.17人、2.25人、2.71人,基层系数均低于0.3。[结论]3类千人口卫生人力资源持续增加,其公平性越来越好,预测发现城乡卫生人力资源数量差距有扩大趋势。应继续优化政府政策和财政投入,重点向农村卫生人力资源倾斜,统筹城乡卫生人力资源协调发展,以缩小城乡差距,保障全民公平可及地享有医疗卫生服务。Objective It analyzes the fairness of urban and rural health human resources in Sichuan Province since the new medical reform,and predicts the number of urban and rural health human resources in 2030 so as to provide data support for the realization of“Healthy Sichuan 2030”.Methods On the basis of a descriptive analysis of urban and rural health human resources from 2009 to 2018,the fairness was measured by the Gini coefficient,and then the gray prediction method was used to predict and analyze the data.Results Over the past ten years of the new medical reform,the number per thousand polpulation of health workers,practicing(assistant)physician and regidtered nurse increased from 3.37,1.54 and 1.01 to 6.17,2.25 and 2.71.Gini coefficient all were below 0.3.Conclusions Health human resources of the three categories of thousands of people had continously increased,and their fairness was getting better and better.It is predicted that the gap in the number of urban and rural health human resources will expand.Further optimizing government policies and financial investment,focusing on rural health human resources,and balance urban and rural health human resources coordinated development so as to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas and ensure that all people have fair and accessible medical and health services.

关 键 词：卫生人力资源 健康四川 公平性 预测 

分 类 号：R192[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]