山东省龙口市水资源利用系统动力学模拟与分析  

System Dynamics Simulation and Analysis of Water Resources Utilization in Longkou City,Shandong Province

作　　者：杨晓 刘昕瑀 秦欢欢 YANG Xiao;LIU Xinyu;QIN Huanhuan(School of Water Resources&Environmental Engineering,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学水资源与环境工程学院,江西南昌330013 [2]东华理工大学核资源与环境国家重点实验室,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《人民珠江》2021年第8期26-32,共7页Pearl River

基　　金：东华理工大学博士科研启动基金(DHBK2016104)。

摘　　要：采用系统动力学分析方法,设计4种不同的情景,对山东省龙口市2019—2050年水资源综合利用与发展情况进行预测和统计分析。结果表明:①龙口市需水量会随预测时间而有所增加,在预测期内,4种情景下龙口市的总需水量平均值分别为137.26亿、150.78亿、113.07亿、139.44亿m^(3),在预测末期(2050年),4种情景下龙口市的总需水量分别是183.92亿、242.71亿、159.75亿、224.68亿m^(3);②不同的情景下龙口市缺水的情况有所不同,预测期内缺水年份的比例分别为91.18%、91.18%、50.00%、67.65%,相应的平均缺水量分别为28.86亿、41.58亿、6.10亿、30.91亿m^(3),平均缺水指数分别为0.2096、0.2589、0.1753、0.2829;③将当下提倡的环保理念与可持续发展理念相结合,龙口市在未来的发展中既要考虑到节约水资源,又要考虑到社会经济的发展。通过对模拟结果的分析与比较,综合发展型情景是所有情景中资源开采与社会经济可持续发展的最优解。Based on system dynamics analysis method,this paper predicts and analyzes the comprehensive utilization and development of water resources in Longkou City,Shandong Province from 2019 to 2050 under four different scenarios.The results show that:①The water demand of Longkou City increases with the forecast time.In the forecast period,the average total water demands of Longkou City under the four scenarios are 13.726,15.078,11.307 and 13.944 billion m^(3),respectively.At the end of the forecast period(2050),the total water demands of Longkou City under the four scenarios are 18.392,24.271,15.975 and 22.468 billion m^(3) respectively;②The water shortage under different scenarios is different.The proportion of water shortage years in the forecast period is 91.18%,91.18%,50.00%and 67.65%,respectively.The average water shortage volume is 2.886,4.158,0.610 and 3.091 billion m^(3) respectively,and the average water shortage index is 0.2096,0.2589,0.1753 and 0.2829 respectively;③Adhering to the concept of environmental protection and sustainable development,it is necessary to balance the water conservation and social and economic development in the future development of Longkou City.Through the analysis and comparison of the simulation results,the comprehensive development scenario is the best among all scenarios for resource exploitation and social and economic sustainable development.

关 键 词：需水量预测 系统动力学 缺水情况 龙口市 

分 类 号：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]