税收激励与企业劳动雇佣——来自薪酬抵税政策的“准自然实验”  

Tax Incentives and Corporate Employment:A Quasi-natural Experiment from Payroll Tax Policy

作　　者：潘凌云 董竹 Pan Lingyun;Dong Zhu

机构地区：[1]汕头大学商学院 [2]吉林大学数量经济研究中心

出　　处：《统计研究》2021年第7期100-111,共12页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大专项“适应新时代社会主要矛盾变迁着眼构建现代化经济体系的深化供给侧结构性改革研究”(18VSJ018)。

摘　　要：在经济下行压力不断加大的形势下,如何"稳就业"成为了各界关注的热点问题。本文以2008年推行的薪酬抵税政策作为"准自然实验"捕捉企业税负的外生变化,并以2000-2018年A股上市公司数据作为研究样本,利用双重差分法考察了税收激励与企业雇佣行为之间的因果关系。实证结果表明:薪酬抵税政策带来了额外的税收优惠,进而促进了企业的雇佣需求,在有效排除共同趋势、预期效应、政策叠加效应以及反向因果问题后,这一结论依然稳健;异质性检验中发现,薪酬抵税政策对企业雇佣的激励效应在民营企业,成本转嫁能力较弱、劳动密集度较高以及处于市场化程度较高区域的企业中表现更加明显,这意味着企业对劳动力成本的变化越敏感,这一政策的作用效果就越好;薪酬抵税政策显著地提升了企业的经营绩效。本文的研究有助于深入理解税收影响企业行为的微观机理,对于政府利用税收政策扩大就业具有重要启示。With the continual downward pressure on China’s economy,how to stabilize employment has become a popular issue.This article takes the payroll tax policy implemented in 2008 as a quasi-natural experiment to capture the exogenous changes of corporate tax burdens,and uses the data of A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2018 and the DID method to study the causality between tax incentives and corporate employment.The results show that the payroll tax policy has brought additional tax incentives and promoted the company’s employment demand.After effectively eliminating common trends,expected effects,policy stacking effects,and reverse causality,this conclusion is still robust.Our heterogeneous test shows that the incentive effect of the policy on corporate employment is more significant in private companies and those companies with weaker cost-passing capabilities,with higher labor intensity,and in more market-oriented regions.In other words,the more sensitive companies are to labor cost changes,the better the effect of the policy.Payroll tax policy significantly improves the performance of companies.The research helps to understand the micromechanism of taxation affecting corporate behavior and has important implications for the government to promote employment with taxation policies.

关 键 词：薪酬抵税 企业所得税率 企业雇佣 劳动力成本 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]