基于潜在类别的无人驾驶汽车选择行为  

Travelers′choice behavior of autonomous vehicles based on latent class

作　　者：刘志伟 刘建荣[2] 邓卫[3] LIU Zhi-wei;LIU Jian-rong;DENG Wei(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan Polytechnic University,Wuhan 430023,China;School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China;School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉轻工大学土木工程与建筑学院,武汉430023 [2]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州510640 [3]东南大学交通学院,南京210096

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2021年第4期1261-1268,共8页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51578247);湖北省自然科学基金项目(2020CFB290).

摘　　要：为了分析出行者出行选择偏好的异质性和无人驾驶汽车对出行选择行为的影响,基于扩展技术接受模型的理论框架,将心理潜变量纳入潜在类别条件Logit模型,建立混合选择模型进行实证研究。结果表明:相比传统的条件Logit模型,潜在类别条件Logit模型的拟合优度更高。受访出行者可以分为共享无人驾驶汽车偏好群体、小汽车偏好群体和私人无人驾驶汽车偏好群体,3个潜在类别分别占比为46.5%、13.0%和40.5%。小汽车偏好群体对步行与等待时间和出行费用持正向评价,私人无人驾驶汽车偏好群体对停车费用持负面评价。感知易用性和感知信任两个潜变量对出行者潜在类别划分具有显著影响。In order to analyze the preferences heterogeneity of travelers and the influence of autonomous vehicles on travel behavior,this study incorporates the latent psychological variables into the latent-class conditional Logit model based on the theoretical framework of the extended technology acceptance model.A hybrid choice model is established to conduct empirical research.The results show that compared with the traditional conditional Logit model,the latent-class conditional Logit model has higher fitness.Respondents can be divided into three subgroups:the shared autonomous vehicles preference subgroup,car preference subgroup,and private autonomous vehicles preference subgroup.The three subgroups account for 46.5%,13.0%and 40.5%,respectively.Travelers from the car preference subgroup evaluate the walking and waiting time and travel costs positively,while travelers from the private autonomous vehicle preference subgroup evaluate parking costs negatively.The two latent variables of perceived ease of use and perceived trust have a significant influence on the classification of latent class.

关 键 词：交通工程 出行方式选择 潜在类别条件Logit模型 潜变量 无人驾驶汽车 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]