规制性壁垒、异质不确定性与企业过度投资  

Regulatory Barriers to Entry,Heterogeneous Uncertainty and Over-investment

作　　者：陈少凌[1,2] 李广众 杨海生[6] 梁伟娟[7] CHEN Shaoling;LI Guangzhong;YANG Haisheng;LIANG Weijuan(School of Economics,Southern China Institute of Finance,Research Institute of Finance,Jinan University;Business School,School of Business,Advanced Institute of Finance,Sun Yat-Sen University;Lingnan(University)College,Sun Yat-Sen University;School of Elonomics,Jinan University)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院、金融研究所,510632 [2]暨南大学南方高等金融研究院,516032 [3]中山大学商学院,510275 [4]中山大学管理学院,510275 [5]中山大学高级金融研究院,510275 [6]中山大学岭南学院,510275 [7]暨南大学经济学院,510623

出　　处：《经济研究》2021年第5期162-179,共18页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71772190);国家自然科学基金科学中心集成项目(U1811462);国家自然科学基金重大项目(71991474);广东省自然科学基金(2016A030313094);中山大学高级金融研究院的资助。

摘　　要：产业组织理论与博弈论研究表明,在存在策略性进入壁垒或市场性进入壁垒条件下,不确定性上升可能促使企业过度投资。在当前多重风险叠加、企业面临不确定性加强的背景下,本文重点考察存在规制性壁垒条件下,异质不确定性可能影响企业过度投资的内在机理。通过构建企业与政府的两阶段动态期权博弈模型,并以2002-2016年房地产上市企业为样本,本文从理论与实证两方面考察了受规制性壁垒约束时异质不确定性对企业投资决策的影响。研究结果表明:(1)存在规制性壁垒条件下,企业的过度投资与先行期权的战略价值密不可分;(2)市场不确定性和政策时机不确定性均可能导致企业的过度投资,政策强度不确定性则会抑制企业的过度投资;(3)在规制性壁垒较严重的地区与行业,政策时机不确定性对企业过度投资的刺激作用更加显著;(4)供给侧改革,尤其是结构性的供给侧改革措施,对企业过度投资具有显著的抑制作用。Over-investment has become one of the principal problems in China nowadays.While the traditional industrial organization and option game theories have studied the reasons why over-investment may exist in the long run from the perspectives of market barriers and strategic barriers to entry,they still fail to explain the existence of Chinese-style over-investment in monopolistic industries with weak competition.In China,firms may be subject to strict licensing and regulating of local governments,which increases regulatory barriers to entry for firms.To reduce the regulatory barriers,Chinese firms have the incentives to invest more in productive capacity to cater the short-term performance needs of local governments.Therefore,high regulatory barriers to entry may be able to explain Chinese-style over-investment.The prior studies have demonstrated the importance of uncertainty,especially policy uncertainties,in firms’investment decisions making.In 2018,the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China once again stressed that with a commitment of pursuing progress while maintaining economic stability,macro regulation policy must be precisely designed and implemented.This paper first provided a detailed discussion about various theoretical definitions and empirical measurements of policy uncertainty,and then explored the intrinsic mechanisms through which over-investment will be triggered by heterogeneous policy uncertainties when there are high regulatory barriers to entry.Based on the latest development of real options and option game theories,this paper examined the strategical investment decision when firms are confronted with the two heterogeneous uncertainties,namely,market uncertainty and policy uncertainty.We proposed that the strategic predominant value with regulatory barriers to entry may help to explain the Chinese-style over-investment.More specifically,this paper investigated the mechanism through which heterogeneous uncertainties,especially the heterogeneous policy uncertai

关 键 词：政策不确定性 过度投资 规制性壁垒 战略先行价值 供给侧改革 

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