双循环背景下有色金属矿产品国际价格波动影响因素研究——以铜、锡为例  

Research on the factors affecting international price fluctuations of nonferrous-metallic mineral resources under the background of dual circulation——Taking copper and tin as examples

作　　者：况秋华 刘春学[1] 尹昊 KUANG Qiu-hua;LIU Chun-xue;YIN Hao(School of Urban and Environmental Science,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming,Yunnan 650221)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学城市与环境学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《价格月刊》2021年第9期1-9,共9页

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“物理机理为基础的高精度地学时空多变量协同统计模型研究”(编号:42062020);云南省院省校教育合作人文社会科学研究项目“云南锡产业高质量发展研究”(编号:SYSX202027);2021年度云南财经大学研究生创新基金项目“双循环背景下有色金属矿产品国际价格波动影响因素研究”(编号:2021YUFEYC018)。

摘　　要：有色金属是工业生产中的重要原材料,其价格频繁且异常波动对国民经济发展和资源供给安全产生了不可忽视的影响。导致有色金属价格波动的原因复杂多样且具有非线性特点,利用MSVAR模型从供求基本面、金融因素、投机因素、联动因素对铜和锡两种金属进行价格波动的对比分析,结果表明:铜价和锡价的波动具有明显的区制转换特征,并且各因素在不同区制下对铜、锡价格的影响方向、强度和作用时间上具有差异性。供求因素方面,铜、锡库存仍是影响其国际价格的最基本因素,铜价波动的“中国因素”被夸大,但锡价波动的“中国因素明显”在一定程度上表明供求基本面对有色金属价格波动仍有重要影响;金融因素在三区制下对铜、锡价格波动影响显著;铜投机因素在期铜价格大涨大跌时表现出显著影响;而联动因素对期铜、期锡的价格波动影响有限。因此,突破重点技术、扩大进口渠道和完善金融期货市场等措施可以降低有色金属价格异常波动及其对宏观经济造成的负面影响,对有色金属国际价格具有稳定作用。Non-ferrous metals are important raw materials in industrial production,and their frequent and abnormal price fluctuations have an important impact on the development of national economy and the security of resource supply.The reasons leading to the price fluctuation of non-ferrous metals are complex and non-linear.Therefore,this paper used the MSVAR model to compare and analyze the price fluctuations of copper and tin from supply and demand,finance,speculation and linkage.The results show that the price fluctuations of copper and tin have obvious characteristics of regime switching,and there are differences in the direction,intensity and duration of the influence of various factors on the prices of copper and tin under different regional switching.In terms of supply and demand,copper and tin stocks are still the most basic factors affecting their international prices.The"Chinese factor"of copper price fluctuations has been exaggerated,but the"Chinese factor"of tin price fluctuations shows that supply and demand fundamentals have an important impact on price fluctuations of non-ferrous metals to a certain degree.Financial factors have a significant impact on copper and tin price fluctuations under the three-zone system;speculation of copper has a significant impact when copper futures prices rise and fall sharply;while linkage has limited impact on the price fluctuations of copper and tin futures.Therefore,measures such as breaking through key technologies,expanding import channels,and improving financial futures markets can reduce the abnormal price fluctuations of non-ferrous metals and their negative impact on the macro economy,and have a stabilizing effect on the international prices of non-ferrous metals.

关 键 词：价格波动 有色金属 区制转换 非线性 铜价 锡价 

分 类 号：F714[经济管理—产业经济]