黑龙江省进口木质林产品的主要影响因素  

Influencing Factors for the Import of Wooden Forest Products in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：吴金卓[1] 王卉 刘滨凡[2] Wu Jinzhuo;Wang Hui;Liu Binfan(Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,P.R.China;Heilongjiang Academy of Forestry)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学,哈尔滨150040 [2]黑龙江省林业科学院

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2021年第8期95-99,共5页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：黑龙江省应用技术研究与开发计划课题(GA19C006-3);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2572019BL05)。

摘　　要：以黑龙江省1999—2018年原木、锯材、木浆、纸(包括纸板)的进口量为研究对象,利用经验模态分解法对4种木质林产品进口量随时间动态变化进行分解,得到不同时间尺度的木质林产品进口波动量以及长期变化趋势;以供给、需求、国际政策环境、贸易等为影响因素,以木质林产品进口波动量、趋势量为评价指标,建立多元线性回归模型,分析影响黑龙江省进口木质林产品的主要因素。结果表明:原木进口量波动主要以中长期波动为主,木浆进口量波动主要以短期波动为主,锯材、纸(包括纸板)进口量波动主要以长期变化趋势为主。由逐步回归分析结果可知,需求是黑龙江省不同木质林产品进口量波动的主要影响因素,黑龙江省地区生产总值(GDP)的增加促进了原木和锯材进口量的增长;中国木材消费量中的造纸用材林的培育快速增长,间接地抑制了对木浆、纸(包括纸板)的进口。其次,国际政策环境、贸易因素也对黑龙江省进口木质林产品有显著影响。2001年中国加入WTO,促进了黑龙江省原木和木浆进口量的上升;由于原木进口量增加,锯材进口量相对减少。俄罗斯调整出口木材关税,导致黑龙江省原木进口量显著下降。人民币升值促进了黑龙江省锯材和木浆的进口。综合分析,需求是黑龙江省不同木质林产品进口量波动的主要影响因素,国际政策环境、贸易等方面的影响次之,木材供给因素对黑龙江省木质林产品进口量的影响不显著。Taking the import volume of logs,sawn wood,wood pulp,paper and cardboard in Heilongjiang Province from 1999 to 2018 as the research objects,the empirical mode decomposition method was used to decompose the time series of import volume of four types of wooden forest products to obtain the fluctuations of wooden forest products at different time scales and long-term change trend.Then,multiple linear regression models were established by taking the supply,demand,international policy environment,and trade related indicators as influencing factors and the fluctuations or change trend in imports of wooden forest products as the evaluation indicators,to analyze the main factors affecting the import of wooden forest products in Heilongjiang Province.According to the empirical mode decomposition results,the fluctuations in log import volume in Heilongjiang Province was dominated by mid-and long-term variations;the fluctuation of wood pulp import volume mainly came from short-term variations;the fluctuations in sawn timber,paper and cardboard import volume were mainly sourced from the overall trend fluctuations.The stepwise regression analysis indicated that the demand factors contributed the most to the fluctuations of the import volume of different wooden forest products in Heilongjiang Province.The increase of GDP in Heilongjiang Province promoted the imports of logs and sawn timber,and the rapid increase of forest cultivation for papermaking in China’s wood consumption hindered the import of wood pulp,paper and cardboard indirectly.Secondly,the international policy environment and trade factors also had significant impacts on the import of wooden forest products.China joining the WTO in 2001 promoted the imports of logs and wood pulp,and import of sawn timber was restrained.The adjustment of timber export tariff in Russia led to the decrease of log imports in Heilongjiang Province.The appreciation of the Renminbi promoted the imports of sawn timber and wood pulp.Therefore,the demand factors were the main factors affe

关 键 词：木质林产品 进口 经验模态分解 黑龙江省 

分 类 号：S7-9[农业科学—林学] F768.5[经济管理—产业经济]