Assimilation of Polarimetric Radar Data Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter for the Analysis and Forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar(2018)  

作　　者：LI Hui-qi LIU Xian-tong XIAO Hui WAN Qi-lin 黎慧琦;刘显通;肖辉;万齐林(Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510640 China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081 China)

机构地区：[1]Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510640 China [2]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081 China

出　　处：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》2021年第2期94-108,共15页热带气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China(42030610);Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2019LASW-B03);Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2021A1515011415);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41905047,41975138)。

摘　　要：This study explores the potential for directly assimilating polarimetric radar data(including reflectivity Z and differential reflectivity Z_(DR))using an ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model to improve analysis and forecast of Tropical Storm Ewiniar(2018).Ewiniar weakened but brought about heavy rainfall over Guangdong,China after its final landfall.In the present study,two experiments are performed,one assimilating only Z and the other assimilating both Z and Z_(DR).Assimilation of Z_(DR)together with Z effectively modifies hydrometeor fields,and improves the forecast of the intensity,shape and position of rainbands.Forecast of 24-hour extraordinary rainfall≥250 mm is significantly improved.Improvement can also be seen in the wind fields because of cross-variable covariance.The current study shows the possibility of applying polarimetric radar data to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones,which deserves more research in the future.

关 键 词：data assimilation polarimetric radar ENKF tropical cyclone heavy rainfall 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]