中国3000年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素  

Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the epidemic disasters for the past 3000 years in China

作　　者：龚胜生[1] 李孜沫 谢海超 王晓伟 张涛[1] 石国宁 陈发虎 GONG Shengsheng;LI Zimo;XIE Haichao;WANG Xiaowei;ZHANG Tao;SHI Guoning;CHEN Fahu(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Research Institute of Sustainable Development,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;School of Tourism and Economic Management,Nanchang Normal University,Nanchang 330032,China;Group of Alpine Paleoecology and Human Adaptation,State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Resources and Environment,Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Tourism School,Shandong Woman's University,Jinan 250300,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院可持续发展研究中心,武汉430079 [2]南昌师范学院旅游与经济管理学院,南昌330032 [3]中国科学院青藏高原研究所古生态与人类适应团队,青藏高原地球系统与资源环境国家重点实验室,北京100101 [4]山东女子学院旅游学院,济南250100

出　　处：《地理学报》2021年第8期1976-1996,共21页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41171408);国家社会科学基金项目(12&ZD145)。

摘　　要：疫灾是人类灾害链网中的顶级灾害。利用历史疫灾史料,建立疫灾时间序列,使用历史断面分析、因子相关分析、时间序列分析等方法,对中国过去2720年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明:(1)中国疫灾流行的频度和强度有长期上升趋势,温暖期形成疫灾低谷,寒冷期形成疫灾高峰。(2)中国疫灾流行总体以夏、秋季为主,但有阶段性差异,15世纪50年代以后,由于疫病种类增多,疫灾频度提高,疫灾的季节性差异逐渐不显著。(3)中国疫灾波动周期主要有620~610 a、320~310 a、230~220 a、170 a、90 a等,它们大都是12 a或11.2 a的倍数,反映了"十二地支"周期的存在和太阳黑子活动对疫灾周期的重大影响。(4)过去近3000年里,中国累积的疫灾广泛度为93.51%,疫灾厚度达16.86层,东南半壁的疫灾比西北半壁的频繁得多、严重得多。(5)中国疫灾区域拓展与土地开发同步,疫灾重心变迁受经济重心的牵引,南宋以前由北向南迁移,南宋以后由东向西迁移;外来疫病输入对疫灾分布格局产生重大影响。(6)疫灾流行既是自然生态现象,也是社会文化现象,疫灾时空分布变迁反映人地关系变迁,人口稠密区、交通沿线区、都城周边区、自然疫源区、灾害频发区都是疫灾多发区。(7)地理环境分异奠定疫灾空间分异,高温、高湿、低海拔地区疫灾易于流行;自然灾害对疫灾具有诱发作用,灾害频繁区也是疫灾频发区,灾害频繁期也是疫灾频繁期;气候变迁影响疫灾波动,寒冷期疫灾多发,温暖期疫灾少发;人口增加带来的土地开发和人地关系紧张,加剧疫灾的流行;疫灾与战争如影随形,战乱频繁期也是疫灾频繁期。Epidemics are one of the most severe events in the human disaster network. On the basis of establishing the epidemic sequence by using historical epidemic data, and using the methods such as historical section analysis, factor correlation analysis, and time sequence analysis, this article examines the spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of the epidemic disasters for the past 2720 years(770 BC-AD 1949) in China. The results show that:(1) The frequency and intensity of epidemic disasters in China have a long-term upward trend, with troughs in the warm periods and peaks in the cold periods.(2) The epidemic prevalence in China generally occurred mainly in summer and autumn, but varied with time, so that since the1450 s, the seasonal difference tended to be less significant due to the increase of the kinds and frequency of epidemics.(3) China’s epidemic fluctuation cycles are mainly 620-610 a, 320-310 a, 230-220 a, 170 a, 90 a, etc., which confirms the existence of "Twelve Earthly Branches" cycle and the significant impact of sunspot activity on the epidemic cycles.(4) For the past3000 years, within the China’s territory, the Epidemic Widespread is 93.51%, which indicates the percentage of the number of affected counties to the total number of counties, and the Epidemic Thickness is 16.86 layers, which represents the ratio of cumulative affected counties to the total number of administrative counties. The epidemics in the southeast half of China occurred much more frequently and severely than those in the northwest half.(5) The expansion of the epidemic prevalent areas in China is synchronized with the areal land exploration. The change of the epidemic centers of gravity is obviously affected by the spatial changes of the economic centers of gravity. The centers shifted from north to south before the Southern Song Dynasty, and moved from east to west after that. The import of foreign infectious diseases has a great impact on the distribution pattern of epidemics in China.(6) The prevalence of epidemics is no

关 键 词：瘟疫灾害 时空特征 影响因素 疫灾周期 历史时期 中国 

分 类 号：R-09[医药卫生]