FPSO火灾爆炸风险评估方法  

Risk Assessment of Fire and Explosion in FPSO

作　　者：刘少卿[1,2] 余建星 陈海成[1,2] 韩放 吴世博 范海昭 LIU Shaoqing;YU Jianxing;CHEN Haicheng;HAN Fang;WU Shibo;FAN Haizhao(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Ship and Deep-sea Exploration,Shanghai 200240,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072 [2]高新船舶与深海开发装备协同创新中心,上海200240

出　　处：《船舶工程》2021年第6期135-142,共8页Ship Engineering

基　　金：国家科技重大专项资助项目(2016ZX05057020);国家科技重大专项资助项目(2016ZX05028005-004);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51239008)。

摘　　要：为了保障海上油气开发的安全进行,对FPSO设备失效引起火灾爆炸进行风险评估。基于模糊Shannon熵和模糊多属性理想现实分析比较法(FMAIRCA),提出了一种改进的FMEA风险评估方法。通过模糊Shannon熵确定风险因素之间的模糊相对重要度,采用FMAIRCA中的重要度值对失效模式进行风险等级排序。通过对FPSO火灾爆炸进行风险评估,并与TOPSIS方法和传统FMEA方法得到的评估结果进行对比,验证评估方法的有效性和可靠性。研究表明,提出的方法能在模糊数据中获取准则权重,在处理大量失效模式和决策标准的情况下计算成本低,该方法排序稳定性更高能够获得更加可靠的风险评估结果。In order to ensure the safety of offshore oil and gas development,we need to evaluate the risk of fire and explosion caused by the failure of FPSO equipment.An improved FMEA risk assessment method based on fuzzy Shannon entropy and fuzzy multi-attribute ideal reality analysis and comparison method(FMAIRCA)is proposed.The fuzzy Shannon entropy is used to determine the fuzzy relative importance of risk factors,and the importance value in FMAIRCA is used to rank the failure modes according to the risk level.Through the risk assessment of FPSO fire and explosion,and compared with the evaluation results obtained by TOPSIS method and traditional FMEA method,the effectivity and reliability of assessment method are verified.The result shows that the proposed method can obtain the criterion weight in the fuzzy data,and the calculation cost is low when dealing with a large number of failure modes and decision criteria.The method has higher ranking stability and can obtain more reliable risk assessment results.

关 键 词：模糊Shannon熵 MAIRCA FMEA MCDM 火灾爆炸 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]