概率积分法预计参数求取及应用研究  

Research on application and obtaining of the probability integral method prediction parameters

作　　者：韩永斌 Han Yongbin(CCTEG Ecological Environment Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100013,China;CCTEG Tangshan Research Institute,Tangshan 063012,China;Tiandi(Tangshan)Mining Science Ltd.,Tangshan 063012,China)

机构地区：[1]中煤科工生态环境科技有限公司,北京100013 [2]中煤科工集团唐山研究院有限公司,河北唐山063012 [3]天地(唐山)矿业科技有限公司,河北唐山063012

出　　处：《矿山测量》2021年第4期15-19,共5页Mine Surveying

基　　金：唐山市科技计划项目(19150251E);天地科技股份有限公司科技创新创业资金专项项目(2018-TD-MS052)。

摘　　要：大量地表移动观测资料显示,概率积分法预计的下沉曲线边缘部分比实际观测下沉曲线收敛快,其预计结果与实际观测值在移动边界区域很难拟合一致,造成了利用观测站求取的预计参数计算的地表变形值在开采影响边界区域与实际观测值不符。文中根据观测站实测数据,提出对观测站分区域反演预计参数,分区域进行地表变形预计的方法,可以有效克服概率积分法边界收敛过快的缺点,使预计结果更符合实际。A large number of the surface movement observation data showed that the convergence of the edge part of the subsidence curve of the probability integral method converged was faster than the actual observation.It was difficult to fit the predicted results with the actual observation values in the moving boundary area,which resulted that the surface deformation calculated by the predicted parameters obtained fromthe observation station was not consistent with the actual observation value in the mining affected boundary area.In this paper,according to the measured data of the observation station,a method was proposed for inverting the predicted parameters of the observing station based on sub-region,and predicting the surface deformation based on sub-region,which could overcome effectively the disadvantage that the boundary convergence of the probability integral method was too fast,and the predicted results were more realistic.

关 键 词：概率积分法 观测站 岩移规律 参数反演 边界收敛 

分 类 号：TD325[矿业工程—矿井建设]