以变应万变?经济政策不确定性对企业战略变革的影响探析  

Respond to change with change?Study on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise strategic change

作　　者：万赫 钟熙[3] 彭秋萍 WAN He;ZHONG Xi;PENG Qiuping(Sun Yat-sen Business School,Guangzhou 510000,China;Huafa Industrial Share Co.,Ltd.,Zhuhai,Zhuhai 519030,China;School of Business Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学管理学院,广东广州510000 [2]珠海华发实业股份有限公司,广东珠海519030 [3]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东广州510640

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2021年第5期52-63,共12页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71872074、71572202)。

摘　　要：外部环境会塑造企业战略是战略管理领域共识之一。然而,外部经济政策环境与战略变革间的逻辑关系却未受到应有的重视。以经济政策不确定性为切入点,基于根据战略变革的适应观与机遇观,本文从经济政策环境视角重新审视了企业战略变革,并考察了经营期望落差、分析师期望落差以及冗余资源在其间的调节作用。基于2010—2017年中国A股上市公司样本,本文发现:第一,经济政策不确定性会促进企业战略变革。第二,随着经营期望落差的扩大,经济政策不确定性对战略变革的促进作用将增强,但随着分析师期望落差的扩大以及冗余资源的增加,经济政策不确定性对战略变革的促进作用将削弱。本文丰富了经济政策不确定性领域和企业战略变革领域的研究成果,同时也为企业积极调整战略来动态匹配经济政策环境提供了相关依据。The external environment could shape the enterprise strategy has become a consensus,but the logical relationship between the external economic policy environment and strategic change has not received due attention.Based on the adaptation view and opportunity view of strategic change,this study re-examines enterprise strategic change from the perspective of economic policy uncertainty,and further examines the contextual role of performance-aspiration shortfall,analyst-aspiration shortfall and slack resources.Taking 2010-2017 China A-share listed companies as the research object,based on fixed effects model,we found that:First,economic policy uncertainty will promote enterprise strategic change;Second,with the expansion of performance-aspiration shortfall,the promotion effect will be enhanced.However,with the expansion of analyst-aspiration shortfall and the increase of slack resources,the effect of economic policy uncertainty in promoting strategic change will be weakened.The theoretical contributions are as follows:First,it enriches and expands the research on strategic change from the perspective of economic policy environment.Most of the previous studies have regarded the external economic policy environment as the research background.Although a few scholars have paid attention to the impact of specific economic policies such as monetary policy on strategic change,there are still limitations such as the assumption that economic policies are stable and predictable.This study demonstrates the role of economic policy uncertainty in promoting enterprise strategic change,effectively offsets previous research limitations,and helps to more deeply and systematically interpret enterprise strategic change from the perspective of external economic policy environment.Second,different from previous studies focusing on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate innovation,corporate investment,this study focuses on the problem of corporate strategic change in strategic management theory and explored the overall le

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 战略变革 经营期望落差 分析师期望落差 冗余资源 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]