安徽地区多模式空气污染预报效果检验与订正  

Test and Revision of Multi-Model Air Pollution Forecast Effect in Anhui Region

作　　者：杨关盈[1,2,3] 邓学良 翟菁[1,2,3] 霍彦峰 于彩霞[1,2,3] 吴文玉 Yang Guanying;Deng Xueliang;Zhai Jing;Huo Yanfeng;Yu Caixia;Wu Wenyu(Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Remote Sensing,Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hefei 230031, China;Shouxian National Climatology Observatory, Shouxian 232200, China;Typical Eco-meteorological Farmland Base of Huaihe River Basin, CMA, Shouxian 232200, China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省气象科学研究所大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,合肥230031 [2]寿县国家气候观象台,安徽寿县232200 [3]中国气象局淮河流域典型农田生态气象野外科学试验基地,安徽寿县232200

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2021年第5期17-25,共9页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：安徽省气象局科技发展基金(KM201804);中央引导地方资金科技惠民项目(2016080802D116);安徽省公益性研究联动计划项目(1604f0804003)。

摘　　要：为提高安徽地区空气污染预报预警能力,采用实况观测数据,对CUACE、WRF-Chem和CMAQ 3种模式业务产品预报的PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_(3)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)和CO小时浓度进行评估和订正。结果表明,3种模式产品和集成预报对于PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_(3)、NO_(2)和CO浓度的预报在安徽地区16个地市均能达到“达标”范围,而集成预报的方法预报结果达到“优秀”范围内的城市更多。集成预报对于PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)的预报在多个城市中均好于3种模式预报结果,在大部分城市集成预报的RMSE小于其他3种模式的,表明其预报值更为接近实况值。集成预报的方法能较为有效改进CUACE、WRF-Chem和CMAQ 3种模式对于PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_(3)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)和CO 6种污染物浓度的预报效果,可为空气污染预报预警提供客观参考。In order to improve the air pollution forecasting and early warning capability in Anhui,the observation data and the integrated forecasting method are used to verify and correct the hourly concentrations of PM_(2.5),PM_(10),O_(3),SO_(2),NO_(2) and CO forecasted by models of CUACE,WRF-Chem and CMAQ.The results show that the products of all the three models and the integrated forecasting method can reach the“acceptable”standard for PM_(2.5),PM_(10),O_(3),NO_(2) and CO in 16 cities in Anhui,and the products by the integrated forecasting method can reach the range of“excellent”in more cities than the model results of CUACE,WRF-Chem and CMAQ.The correlations of PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) between integrated products and monitored values are higher than those of the three models.The RMSE of integrated products in most cities is smaller than the forecast errors of other three models,indicating the integrated forecast products are much closer to the monitored values.So,the integrated forecasting method could effectively improve the prediction effects of the three models(CUACE,WRF-Chem and CMAQ)for PM_(2.5),PM_(10),O_(3),SO_(2),NO_(2) and CO pollutants,and could provide an objective reference for air pollution forecasting and early warning.

关 键 词：模式 检验 集成预报 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]