一种水驱气藏产量预测的新方法  

A New Method for Predicting the Production of Water Drive Gas Reservoirs

作　　者：彭园园 张茂林[2] 张艺钟[2] 杨龙[1] PENG Yuan-yuan;ZHANG Mao-lin;ZHANG Yi-zhong;YANG Long(School of Petroleum Engineering,Yangtze University,Wuhan 430100,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Unconventional Oil and Gas,Yangtze University,Wuhan 430100,China)

机构地区：[1]长江大学石油工程学院,武汉430100 [2]长江大学非常规油气湖北省协同创新中心,武汉430100

出　　处：《当代化工》2021年第7期1608-1611,共4页Contemporary Chemical Industry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金,考虑地层水与储层多孔介质的页岩气藏多组分吸附相态行为研究(项目编号:52004032)。

摘　　要：针对水驱气藏生产初期气井产量预测时,需要根据井口压力计算井底流压,间接预测气井产气量导致计算误差难以避免的问题,提出了基于最小二乘支持向量机的产气量预测方法。运用生产动态数据,直接预测出水驱气藏生产初期气井产气量。以某水驱气藏某区块气井为研究对象,首先从渗流机理出发,确定影响水驱气藏气井产气量的特征因素,然后用最小二乘支持向量机建立了气井产气量的预测回归模型,最后采用列队竞争算法对最小二乘支持向量机预测回归模型进行优化。结果表明:建立该模型所需数据特征少,应用性强,对水驱气藏产气量预测精确度较高。该方法为其他水驱气藏生产初期气井产气量预测提供了参考。When the conventional binomial productivity equation predicts the production of a gas well in a water drive gas reservoir,it is necessary to calculate the bottom hole pressure according to the wellhead pressure,and indirectly predict the production,there is a certain error in the prediction;considering the defects of the above method,a least squares support vector machine production forecast method was proposed.The production forecast method uses production dynamic data to directly forecast production.Taking a gas well in a certain block of a water drive gas reservoir as the research object,firstly,starting from the seepage mechanism,two characteristic factors affecting the production of a water drive gas reservoir were determined,and then a least square support vector machine was used to establish a prediction regression model for the gas well productivity.Finally,the queue competition algorithm was used to optimize the least squares support vector machine predictive regression model.The experimental results showed that the established model required few data features,had strong applicability and high accuracy in predicting the production of water drive gas reservoirs.The method provides some reference for other water drive gas reservoir production prediction.

关 键 词：水驱气藏 列队竞争算法 最小二乘支持向量机 产量预测 

分 类 号：TE328[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]