资本利用率、全要素生产率与货币政策  

Capital Utilization,Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy

作　　者：苏剑[1] 纪尧 SU Jian;JI Yao(School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第5期33-41,共9页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

摘　　要：长期以来,测算中国全要素生产率(TFP)的研究普遍存在遗漏资本利用率的问题。本文通过构建内生增长DSGE模型,以货币政策冲击作为典型冲击进行脉冲响应分析,结果表明:由于传统的TFP测算忽略了资本要素利用率,从而导致测算结果出现过度顺周期性,并且中国金融市场的不完备性进一步扩大了TFP的顺周期性。因而,如果在测算生产率时遗漏了相关的投入要素利用率,那么即使生产率本身没有发生变化,生产率的测算结果也可能给出中国的技术积累与经济增长高度联动的错误结论。本文在控制资本利用率的条件下测算了中国历年的TFP增速,并梳理了相关的基本特征。作为延伸,还进一步探讨了货币政策冲击对TFP的影响效应,结果显示,货币政策冲击对TFP影响较小。For a long time,measurement of China’s total factor productivity(TFP)in literature generally omits capital utilization rate.This paper constructs endogenous growth DSGE model,takes the monetary policy shock as a typical shock,and impulse response analysis shows that the traditional TFP measurement which ignores the capital factor utilization rate will lead to the excessive procyclicality of TFP,and furthermore,the imperfection of China’s financial market further expands the procyclicality of China’s TFP.Therefore,if we omit the relevant input factor utilization rate in the measurement of productivity,even if the productivity itself does not change,the measurement results of productivity may give a wrong conclusion that China’s technology accumulation and economic growth are highly linked.In this paper,the TFP growth rate in China over the years is measured under the condition of controlling capital utilization rate,and the relevant basic characteristics are sorted out.As an extension,this paper further discusses the effect of monetary policy shock on TFP,and the result shows that the impact of monetary policy shock on TFP is minor.

关 键 词：全要素生产率 资本利用率 货币政策 技术进步率 顺周期性 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]