高铁开通对民族地区旅游业发展的影响  

Impact of High-Speed Rail on Tourism Development in Ethnic Regions

作　　者：张自强[1] 陈萍 杨重玉 Zhang Ziqiang;Chen Ping;Yang Zhongyu(College of Tourism and Culture Industry,Guizhou University//Guizhou Grass-roots Social Governance Research Centre,Guiyang 550025,China;Personnel Office,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China;College of Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学旅游与文化产业学院//贵州基层社会治理创新高端智库,贵阳550025 [2]贵州财经大学人事处,贵阳550025 [3]贵州财经大学经济学院,贵阳550025

出　　处：《热带地理》2021年第5期1096-1109,共14页Tropical Geography

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划青年项目(21GZQN08)。

摘　　要：高铁快速发展极大地提升了目的地可达性,民族地区交通条件落后但旅游资源独特,高铁开通能否成为推动民族地区旅游业发展的引擎,抑或加剧发展差距,亟待检验高铁的旅游经济效应。基于2000—2017年中国20个民族地区的省级面板数据,运用多期双重差分法评估高铁开通对民族地区旅游业发展的影响。结果发现,高铁开通促进了民族地区的国内旅游总人次和国内旅游总收入分别平均增长16.52%和23.29%,对站点地区具有增长效应,但对地区间旅游业发展差距的影响不显著,不具有分配效应,表明高铁开通能成为民族地区旅游业发展的引擎;影响机制检验发现,高铁开通具有扩散效应和结构效应,但未观察到虹吸效应和过道效应;动态性检验发现,高铁开通对旅游业发展的增长效应在开通后第一二年仍显著,而分配效应均不显著。High-speed rail(HSR)has significantly improved the accessibility of tourist destinations,thereby promoting the increase and gathering of tourist flow.In addition to promoting the development of tourism,the HSR may exacerbate the gap in regional tourism development.Thus,the tourism economic growth effect and distribution effect of HSR opening coexist.Existing studies are controversial regarding the growth effect.Moreover,they have not considered the distribution effect.Accordingly,it is urgent to test whether the HSR can become a promotion engine for the development of regional tourism or aggravate the development gap.Using provincial panel data of 20 ethnic regions in China from 2000 to 2017,this study evaluated the applicability of the difference-in-differences(DID)method through parallel trend testing and used DID to evaluate the impact of the HSR on tourism development in ethnic regions.In addition,three factors need to be considered to ensure robust estimation results.First,a placebo test is performed.According to the counterfactual hypothesis,the opening year of the HSR is advanced by two years,and the DID is used to perform an estimation again.Second,robustness tests are conducted using semiparametric-DID to perform an estimation and DID to perform an estimation by replacing the explanatory and control variables,respectively.Finally,the endogeneity test is conducted using Two-stage least squares method.The major research conclusions are as follows:1)Overall,HSR has promoted the development of tourism in ethnic regions,with an average increase of 16.52%in total domestic tourist arrivals and of 23.29%in total domestic tourism revenue.Thus,HSR has a growth effect on the tourism economy in ethnic areas.Furthermore,HSR does not affect the gap in total domestic tourist arrivals among ethnic regions or in total domestic tourism income among ethnic regions.Hence,HSR does not have a distribution effect on the tourism economy in ethnic regions.2)From the perspective of robustness,after replacing the variables and est

关 键 词：高铁 旅游业发展 双重差分法 民族地区 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]