北京冬奥会期间的空气质量预测  

Air Quality Forecast During the Beijing Winter Olympics

作　　者：郭建龙 陈艳 吴利丰 GUO Jian-long;CHEN Yan;WU Li-feng(College of Management Engineering and Business,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学管理工程与商学院,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第17期86-101,共16页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71871084);河北省青年拔尖人才项目;河北省高校百名优秀创新人才支持计划项目(SLRC2019001);邯郸市哲学社会科学规划研究课题(2020037,2020054,2021077)。

摘　　要：为了解2022年2月冬奥会举办期间会场所在地区的空气质量,采用了一种季节性整合型累加灰色模型对北京市、张家口市的空气质量综合指标(AQCI)和PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)、CO日均值第95百分位(CO-95per)、O_(3)日最大8小时平均第90百分位(O_(3)-8H-90per)的浓度进行了预测.预测结果表明,未来这两个城市的空气质量有变好的趋势,但是如何降低PM_(2.5)和O_(3)-8H-90per的浓度依然是一个比较严峻的问题,冬奥会期间空气质中的PM_(2.5)浓度达标具有一定的挑战性.根据预测结果,给出了相应的建议.In order to understand the air quality of the venue area during the Winter Olympic Games in February 2022,this paper uses a seasonal compound accumulation grey model to predict the air quality comprehensive index(AQCI)and the concentrations of PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2),CO in the 95 th percentile(CO-95per)and O_(3)in the maximum 8-hour average in the 90 th percentile(O_(3)-8 H-90per).The prediction results show that the air quality of these two cities will improve in the future,but how to reduce the concentration of PM_(2.5)and O_(3)is still a serious problem,and it will be a certain challenge to meet the standard of PM_(2.5)concentration during the Winter Olympics.According to the prediction results,the suggestions are given.

关 键 词：空气质量预测 周期因子 灰色预测模型 北京冬奥会 

分 类 号：X831[环境科学与工程—环境工程]