降雨对城市公交运行可靠性影响规律研究  

Study on the influence of rainfall on the reliability of urban public transportation

作　　者：杨海飞 杨展豪 寸东岳 陈盈 崔雨生 韦兰清 Yang Haifei;Yang Zhanhao;Cun Dongyue;Chen Ying;Cui Yusheng;Wei Lanqing(College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学土木与交通学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《山西建筑》2021年第20期4-8,共5页Shanxi Architecture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71801080);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(B200202068);江苏省博士后科研资助计划(2018K043B)。

摘　　要：通过定量分析降雨环境下不同因素对雨天公交行程时间可靠性的影响并得出其统计变化规律。结合概率完成型指标和德克萨斯交通研究所提出的经典延误指标和波动指标,定量化分析了降雨环境下不同雨量等级、不同交通时段和公交专用道设置对公交站间行程时间可靠性的影响规律。研究发现,降雨环境对公交运行可靠性具有负面影响,雨量等级越高,站间行程时间可靠性越低,中雨等级时下降幅度最明显。此外,降雨对高峰时段的影响程度较高,而设置公交专用道有助于保障公交行程时间可靠性。研究结果为优化雨天公交运行的调度策略提供了理论依据。Through quantitative analysis of the influence of different factors on the bus travel time and its reliability in rainy days,the paper obtains its statistical variation law.Firstly,the statistical law of travel time between bus stations under rainfall environment and sunny weather is compared and analyzed,and the goodness of fit test is carried out by using normal distribution probability model and lognormal distribution probability model.Combined with the probability completion index and the classic delay index and volatility index proposed by Texas Transportation Research Institute,this paper quantitatively analyzes the influence of different rainfall levels,different traffic periods and bus lane Settings on the reliability of travel time between bus stops under rainfall environment.It is found that the rainfall environment has a negative impact on bus operation reliability.The higher the rainfall level is,the lower the reliability of inter-station travel time is,and the decrease is most obvious when the rainfall level is moderate.In addition,the impact of rainfall on peak hours is relatively high,and the establishment of bus lanes is helpful to ensure the reliability of bus travel time.The research results provide a theoretical basis for optimizing the scheduling strategy of bus operation in rainy days.

关 键 词：降雨环境 城市公交 行程时间可靠性 波动指数 延误指数 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]