基于历史地震数据的建筑物致死性水平研究  

Research on the lethal level of buildings based on historical seismic data

作　　者：聂高众[1] 夏朝旭 范熙伟[1] 李华玥[1] Nie Gaozhong;Xia Chaoxu;Fan Xiwei;Li Huayue(Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地质科学》2021年第4期1250-1266,共17页Chinese Journal of Geology(Scientia Geologica Sinica)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2018YFC1504503,2018YFC1504403);中国地震局地质研究所所长基金重点项目(编号:IGCEA2016)资助。

摘　　要：快速而准确的人员死亡评估结果是震后应急救援工作的基础,而在通常情况下建筑物的破坏是造成人员伤亡的主要原因之一,众多历史地震数据表明,在建筑物破坏比接近的情况下,人员死亡率却可能出现较大的差别,即不同类型的建筑物在破坏后具有不同的致死性水平。本文基于52次历史地震的人员死亡率、建筑物破坏比等参数构建区域致死性水平计算模型,在获得区域致死性水平的前提下,通过构建建筑物致死性水平模型,获得了各个类型建筑的致死性水平,结果发现,土坯结构的致死性水平在85%~100%之间,土木结构在70%~95%之间,砖木结构在60%~90%之间,砖混结构在25%~70%之间,木结构在20%~40%之间,框架结构在10%~30%之间,不同类型的建筑物致死性水平分布区间是比较确定的一个非等分区间,彼此之间存在重叠区域,建筑物致死性水平区间范围为实地调查中各个类型建筑物致死性水平的确定提供了理论依据,也能够为震后的人员伤亡快速评估、震前的风险区划和风险评估提供科学支撑。Fast and accurate death assessment results are the basis of emergency rescue work after the earthquake,and damage to buildings is one of the main causes of casualties.However,seismic data show that when the proportion of building damage is close,there is a big difference in the number of deaths.Different buildings may have the same probability of damage after an earthquake,but there are huge differences in the level of death after damage,that is,the lethal level of different building is different.In this paper,based on the mortality rate,building damage ratio and other parameters of 52 historical earthquakes,we construct a lethal level calculation model,and obtain the lethal level of each building type,the lethal level range of adobe structure is 85%~100%,civil structure is 70%~95%,brick-wood structure is 60%~90%,brick-concrete structure is 25%~70%,and wood structure is 20%~40%,the reinforced concrete structure is 10%~30%,the lethal level distribution interval of different building type is relatively certain,it is a non-equal partition,and there is an overlapping area between each other,the building lethal level range can provide a theoretical basis and quantitative calculation standard for determining the lethal levels of various types of buildings in field investigations.It can also provide scientific support for risk zoning and risk assessment before the earthquake,rapid assessment of casualties after the earthquake.

关 键 词：历史地震 破坏比 死亡率 致死性水平 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]