基于联系函数的区域农业旱灾脆弱性定量评价  

Quantitative Evaluation of Regional Agricultural Drought Vulnerability Based on Connection Function

作　　者：李征 崔毅[1,2] 周戎星[1,2] 宁少尉[1,2] 周玉良[1,2] LI Zheng;CUI Yi;ZHOU Rong-xing;NING Shao-wei;ZHOU Yu-liang(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第9期10-13,53,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502405);国家自然科学基金项目(51779067,52109009);山东省重点研发计划项目(2017GSF20101);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(JZ2020HGQA0202)。

摘　　要：为了更准确有效地评价区域农业旱灾脆弱性强弱,以集对分析为基本理论,构建了基于联系函数的区域农业旱灾脆弱性定量评价模型,该模型通过两次集对过程全面深刻地挖掘评价样本与评价等级之间复杂的关系信息,将其应用于蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性评价。结果表明,蚌埠市2001~2003年的脆弱性等级值分别为4.15、3.99、3.97,在等级值4左右波动,而2004~2010年的脆弱性等级值在3左右波动,这说明蚌埠市农业旱灾脆弱性在2001~2010年间逐渐变弱;农业系统抵御干旱的能力在逐渐增强,这与已有的研究成果有较好的一致性。联系函数模型对促进农业旱灾风险定量评估具有重要的积极作用,同时可为实现区域农业旱灾风险管理提供科学参考。In order to evaluate vulnerability of regional agricultural drought more accurately and effectively,a quantitative evaluation model of agricultural drought vulnerability based connection function was constructed using set pair analysis theory.The model comprehensively and deeply mined the relationship between evaluation samples and evaluation grades by two set pair processes,and it was applied to the evaluation of agricultural drought vulnerability in Bengbu City.The results show that the vulnerability grade values in Bengbu City from 2001 to 2003 were 4.15,3.99,and 3.97,respectively,which fluctuated around the value of 4,while the vulnerability grade value fluctuated around 3 from 2004 to 2010.These indicated that the vulnerability of agricultural drought in Bengbu City gradually weakened from 2001 to 2010,and the ability of agricultural system to resist drought was gradually strengthened,which was in good accordance with references.Therefore,the connection function model plays an important and positive role in promoting the quantitative assessment of agricultural drought risk,and can provide scientific reference for regional agricultural drought risk management.

关 键 词：农业旱灾 脆弱性评价 联系函数 集对分析 蚌埠市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]