精准防灾导向下乡村地质灾害易发性评价及防灾策略研究——以花垣县为例  

Improving disaster prevention accuracy of rural geological disaster susceptibility evaluation and disaster prevention strategy——a case study of Huayuan County

作　　者：邹芳[1,2] 刘晨曦 陈茜露 ZOU Fang;LIU Chen-xi;CHEN Xi-lu(School of Architecture,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410076,China;Safe County Institute,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410076,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学建筑学院,长沙410076 [2]长沙理工大学安全乡村研究所,长沙410076

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2021年第4期1703-1711,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAL05B07);湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目(19B022);湖南省自然科学基金面上项目(2020jj4621);长沙理工大学科研助推计划项目(2019qjcz056)。

摘　　要：山地乡村地质灾害频发,而现有的防灾规划不够科学且过于粗放,实现精准防灾成为当下乡村振兴的重要内容。以花垣县为例,通过地理加权回归模型(GWR)和一般回归模型(OLS)的比较,开展地质灾害易发性评价研究。结果表明:GWR模型验证系数远优于OLS,因此GWR更适合解释地质灾害的形成,且预测准确率达到97.9%;花垣县南部和西北部等区域属于灾害高易发区;花垣县致灾要素中降雨、高程、断裂带、水系致灾贡献比例高,建筑、道路、采矿要素次之,且不同村庄致灾因子存在明显空间差异性。研究不但提高了地质灾害易发性评价的科学性,而且提出了“异村异法”的精准防灾策略,增强了乡村抵御灾害的能力。Geological disasters are a serious concern in mountainous areas,especially in the countryside of China.How to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of disaster prevention planning is an important content of the Current Rural Revitalization Strategy.Based on the comparison of the Geographically Weighted Regression Model(GWR)and the Multiple Linear Regression Model(OLS),this study takes Huayuan County as a case to evaluate the susceptibility of geological disasters.The results of this case are as follows.(1)The model validation coefficient GWR is more suitable than OLS for analyzing the formation and evaluation of geological disasters in the case area.And in the reliability verification of the model,the prediction accuracy of GWR is 97.9%which proves the superiority of the GWR Model again.(2)The southern and northwestern regions of Huayuan County are areas with high susceptibility to geological disasters.In the whole case area,the high susceptibility area accounts for 45.2%,the medium susceptibility area is 32%,and the low susceptibility area is 22.8%.(3)Among the disaster-causing elements in Huayuan County,rainfall,elevation,fault zones,and rivers have a high contribution,followed by construction,roads,and mining.Based on the differences in disaster factors,there are obvious spatial differences in disaster factors in different villages.The entire research not only improves the scientific of the geological disaster susceptibility assessment but also proposes a precise disaster prevention strategy of“different villages have different methods”,which can effectively enhance the ability of villages to resist natural disasters.

关 键 词：公共安全 地质灾害易发性 乡村安全 地理加权回归(GWR) 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]