高房价是否挤压了城镇居民的消费需求?  

Does the High Housing Price Squeeze Out Consumption Demand of Urban Residents?

作　　者：朱诗娥 顾欣 ZHU Shi-e;GU Xin(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《消费经济》2021年第4期84-93,共10页Consumer Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(20AZD072)。

摘　　要：房价高企、居民消费率低水平徘徊,是当前我国宏观经济运行中的两个突出现象。文章基于2005-2019年中国292个城市的面板数据,研究了房价收入比对我国城镇居民平均消费倾向的影响。全样本基准回归结果表明,房价收入比每上升1个百分点,城镇居民平均消费倾向下降0.149个百分点。异质性分析表明,这种挤压效应对中西部地区城市组和低收入城市组的影响比对东部地区城市组和高收入城市组的影响更大。房价收入比每上升1个百分点,中西部地区和东部地区城镇居民平均消费倾向分别下降0.135个百分点和0.1141个百分点,低收入城市组和高收入城市组城镇居民平均消费倾向分别下降0.1715个百分点和0.1323个百分点。坚持"房住不炒"的政策方针、稳定房价,是提高我国居民消费能力、落实"需求侧改革"的重要保障。The high housing price and sluggish household consumption are two prominent characters of Chinese economy in current.We explore the impacts of housing price-to-income ratio on the average propensity to consume(APC)of urban residents based on the annual panel data of 292 cities in China from 2005 to 2019.We find that the high housing price squeeze out consumption with every 1 percentage points increase in housing price-to-income ratio leading to a 0.149 percentage points decrease in the APC of urban residents according to the regression results of the benchmark model.Furthermore,the results of heterogeneity analysis show that the impact of the squeeze effect on the central and western cities and relatively low-income cities are greater than that on the eastern cities and relatively high-income cities.Each 1 percent increase in housing price-to-income ratio will lead to a decrease of 0.135 and 0.1715 percentage points in the APC respectively for urban residents live in central or western cities and those belong to the relatively low income group,while that number is respectively 0.1141 and0.1323 for urban residents live in eastern cities and those belong to the relatively high income group.It is important to stabilize housing price in order to expand consumer demand and implement"demand side reform"under the new situation.

关 键 词：房价收入比 城镇居民消费 平均消费倾向 房住不炒 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]