基于蒙特卡洛法的水电建设项目投资风险分析  

Investment risk analysis of hydropower projects based on Monte Carlo method

作　　者：冷建飞[1] 陈心楠 LENG Jianfei;CHEN Xinnan(School of Business,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《水利经济》2021年第5期20-23,80,共5页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

摘　　要：为更好地分析水电建设项目的投资风险,选择净现值作为衡量项目投资风险的指标,运用蒙特卡洛法对国内某水电建设项目进行了实证分析,对比分析了该水电建设项目单独运行和联合上游水库运行时的投资风险差异,并进一步分析与上游水库联合发电的延后实现对项目投资风险和收益的影响。结果表明:该水电项目联合上游水库运行的投资风险较小,且收益表现优于单独运行;项目建成后与上游水库实现联合发电的时间越长,收益越高,但投资风险随着实现联合发电延后年限的增加,呈现先下降后上升的趋势;水电项目建设企业和投资者应关注水电建设项目是否联合上游水库发电,以及联合发电延后实现对项目投资风险的影响。To better analyze the investment risk of hydropower projects,the net present value is selected as the index to measure the investment risk,and the Monte Carlo method is used to conduct an empirical analysis of a hydropower project in China.The difference in the investment risk between the single operation of the hydropower project and the joint operation with the upstream reservoir is compared.Further analysis is made on the influences of the delay in the joint operation with the upstream reservoir on the investment risk and benefit of the project.The results show that the hydropower project has lower investment risk and higher benefit when operated in conjunction with the upstream reservoir than operated separately.After completion of the project,the longer the duration of the joint operation with the upstream reservoir,the higher the income.However,as the number of years of delay in the joint operation with the upstream reservoir increases,the investment risk shows a downward and then upward trend.The construction companies and investors of hydropower projects should pay attention to whether the hydropower project is a joint operation with the upstream reservoir or not,and the influences of delay in the joint operation with the upstream reservoir on the investment risk of the project.

关 键 词：水电建设项目 蒙特卡洛法 投资风险 联合上游水库 延后 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]