面向情报需求的区域毒品价格评估模型  

Regional Price-based Evaluation Model on Illicit Drug Quotation for Intelligence Demand

作　　者：范馨月 黄大志 FAN Xinyue;HUANG Dazhi(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China;Guizhou Provincial Public Security Department,Guiyang 550000,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学数学与统计学院,贵阳550025 [2]贵州省公安厅,贵阳550000

出　　处：《刑事技术》2021年第5期531-536,共6页Forensic Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(11961008);贵州省科学技术基金项目(黔科合基础[2019]1122号);贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合平台人才[2020]5016)。

摘　　要：面向情报需求对区域各类流通毒品价格进行建模分析,针对毒品案事件管理系统中毒品交易量及价格数据,基于聚类分析评估单类毒品零包价格,并以此构建线性加权评估模型,用该模型计算出的价格指标评估当地毒品价格水平。实验结果表明,省级的毒品价格指标相对稳定,以此构建了偏离度、平稳度综合反映所辖区域毒品打击力度,为地方禁毒部门对毒情监管提供一定的理论依据及数据支撑。Base on the data collected from drug trafficking cases,a linearity-weighted evaluation model was tried to construct by way of cluster analysis for assessing the retail price of single-sort illicit drug sneaked to sell with dosed package.Such an endeavor was purposed to judge the price level of locality-confined illicit drugs using the price index calculated from the established evaluation model.Consequently,the illicit drug price index was shown relatively stable within a larger region,potential to imply whether one drug is to sell in wholesale or retail.As there is until present no scientific evaluative method about reflecting the strength of fighting against regional illicit-drug crime,the here-constructed evaluation model may play its role into indicating the fighting strength from extents of both the deviation and stability that were calculated through their time-associated unit-root test.Therefore,a certain theoretical and data support would be provided for anti-drug trafficking departments to supervise drug-trading dynamics.The evaluation model,if applied and utilized,is supposedly to assist public security authorities to gather intelligence about drug trafficking and abusing.

关 键 词：零包价格 聚类分析 线性加权评估模型 区域毒品价格指标 

分 类 号：DF793[政治法律—诉讼法学]