北京地区小震活动与北京及周边地区显著地震相关性研究  

Correlation Between Small Earthquake Activity in Beijing Area and Significant Earthquake in Beijing and Surrounding Area

作　　者：崔博闻[1] 岳晓媛[1] 王丽红[1] CUI Bowen;YUE Xiaoyuan;WANG Lihong(Beijing Earthquake Agency,Beijing 100080,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市地震局,北京100080

出　　处：《华北地震科学》2021年第4期87-94,共8页North China Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金(8212041)。

摘　　要：通过分析1997年以来北京地区小震活动的起伏变化发现,北京地区小震活动的起伏特征与北京及周边地区显著地震(ML3.9以上)存在一定相关性,主要表现为:若北京地区ML2.0~2.9地震月频度大于4,则北京及周边地区(39.5°~41.0°N,115.0°~117.6°E)半年内有发生显著地震的可能,对应率为75%,虚报率为25%,漏报率为14.3%,R=0.72,R0=0.44,具有较好的预报效能,能够为北京及其周边地区显著地震的震情分析提供预测依据。This paper analyzes the fluctuation of small earthquake activity in Beijing area since 1997.The results show that there is a certain correlation between the fluctuation characteristics of small earthquake activity in Beijing area and the significant earthquakes(ML≥3.9)in Beijing and surrounding area.The main performance is that if the month frequency of ML2.0~2.9 earthquakes in Beijing area is greater than 4,there is a possibility that the earthquakes with magnitude above significant will occur in Beijing and surrounding area(39.5~41.0°N,115.0~117.6°E)within half a year,the corresponding rate is 75%,the false ratio is 25%,omission rate is 14.3%,R=0.72,R0=0.44,it has good prediction efficiency,it may provide the prediction basis for the significant earthquake seismic analysis in Beijing and surrounding area.

关 键 词：小震活动 显著地震 相关性 预报效能 

分 类 号：P315.63[天文地球—地震学]