基于灰色理论的私人汽车拥有量分析及预测  

Analysis and estimation of Private Car Ownership based on gray theory

作　　者：邢蕾 刘永超 XING Lei;LIU Yongchao(School of Mathematics and Statistics, Changchun University of Technology, Changchun 130012, China)

机构地区：[1]长春工业大学数学与统计学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《长春工业大学学报》2021年第4期305-311,共7页Journal of Changchun University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(11901055)。

摘　　要：采用中国统计年鉴2000-2019年私人汽车相关数据,利用自适应Lasso估计方法选择已知解释变量得到主要影响变量以进行预测,并与灰色模型的短期预测结果进行比较。With the data of private car ownership from China Statistical Yearbook between 2000 and 2019,the adaptive Lasso method is used to select the known explanatory variables and get the main influencing variables for prediction.The results are compared with that with the short-term prediction based on the gray model.

关 键 词：汽车拥有量 自适应Lasso GM(1 1)模型 灰色理论 短期预测 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]