考虑水化热影响的混凝土坝位移监测统计分析模型及其解析  

Qualification and statistical analysis of residual hydration heat influence on concrete dam displacement

作　　者：华倩宇 苏怀智 杨立夫[2] HUA Qianyu;SU Huaizhi;YANG Lifu(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2021年第5期62-70,共9页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51979093);国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510801,2018YFC0407101)。

摘　　要：为量化水化热对混凝土坝位移的影响,在混凝土坝位移统计模型的基础上,提出了水化热分量形式。结合混凝土坝的位移、上游水位和坝体温度监测数据,采用改进的偏最小二乘法建立混凝土坝的位移统计模型,从实测位移数据中分离出温度引起的位移分量,然后以周期项作为环境温度分量的表达式,利用一维热传导方程的简化近似解来构建水化热分量的表达式,拟合温度位移分量,实现水化热对混凝土坝位移的量化影响分析。工程实例计算表明,偏最小二乘回归模型能有效克服各类因子变量间的多重共线性对模型拟合精度的影响,提出的水化热分量表达式具有适用性,残余水化热引起的混凝土坝位移不容忽视。Based on a statistical model of dam displacement,the form of hydration heat component was proposed to quantify the influence of hydration heat on dam displacement.According to the data of dam displacement,water level and dam body thermometer,the statistical model of dam displacement was established by using backward elimination-partial least square(BE-PLS)method.The displacement component caused by temperature was separated from the measured displacement data.Then,the periodic term was used as the expression of environmental temperature component,and the approximate solution of one-dimensional heat conduction equation was used to construct the model of hydration heat component.The two terms were used to fit the temperature displacement component to realize quantitative analysis of the influence of hydration heat on dam displacement.Calculation of an engineering case shows that the statistical model established by BE-PLS can effectively overcome the influence of multicollinearity among various factor variables on the fitting accuracy of the model.The proposed formula of hydration heat component is applicable,and the dam displacement caused by residual hydration heat should not be ignored.

关 键 词：混凝土坝 位移统计模型 水化热分量 环境温度分量 热传导方程 偏最小二乘法 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]