基于SSPs的未来全球陆地极端降水强度的空间分异特征预估  

Spatial Differentiation Prediction of Global Land Extreme Precipitation Intensity Based on SSPs

作　　者：孔锋 孙劭[3] KONG Feng;SUN Shao(College of Humanities and Development Studies,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China;Center for Crisis Management Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学人文与发展学院,北京100083 [2]清华大学应急管理研究基地,北京100084 [3]国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《灾害学》2021年第4期107-112,118,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划政府间/港澳台重点专项项目(2018YFE0109600);国家自然科学基金项目(41701103;41775078;41801064);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2021TC062);国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510202;2018YFC1509003;2018YFC1509001);中亚大气科学研究基金项目(CAAS201804)。

摘　　要：采用SSPs情景下BCC-CSM2-MR模式输出的2015—2100年的全球日值降水数据,基于采用超阈值取样方法和韦伯分布理论,计算了全球陆地极端降水的阈值和强度的空间差异特征。结果表明:①不同SSPs情景下全球陆地的极端降水阈值空间分布具有相似性,且差异较大的地区主要分布在中纬度地区。其中SSP1-2.6情景下的阈值与SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景的空间相关系数分别达到了0.73、0.71、0.70和0.69(n=16941),均通过了0.01显著性水平的检验。②不同SSPs情景下的全球陆地极端降水强度空间分布具有相似性,仅在强度和面积上有所差异,呈现出区域和次区域特征。同一SSP情景下的全球陆地极端降水强度之间的空间相关系数,随着重现期的增加而减小。③SSP5-8.5与SSP1-2.6情景下的全球陆地极端降水强度差异在热带和季风区主要以正差异为主,其分布面积和强度随着年遇型增加而增加。Based on the global daily precipitation data of 2015—2100 from BCC-CSm^(2)-MR model under SSPs scenario,we calculate the spatial difference characteristics of global land extreme precipitation threshold and intensity by using super threshold sampling method and Weibull distribution theory.The results show that:(1)The spatial distribution of global land extreme precipitation thresholds is similar under different SSPs scenarios,and the regions with large differences are mainly distributed in the middle latitudes.The spatial correlation coefficients of SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are 0.73,0.71,0.70 and 0.69(n=16941),respectively,which all pass the test of significance level of 0.01.(2)The spatial distribution of global land extreme precipitation intensity under different SSPs scenarios is similar,but only different in intensity and area,showing regional and sub-regional characteristics.Under the same SSP scenario,the spatial correlation coefficient between global land extreme precipitation intensity decreases with the increase of return period.(3)The difference of global land extreme precipitation intensity between SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios is mainly positive in tropical and monsoon regions,and its distribution area and intensity increase with the increase of annual pattern.

关 键 词：共享社会经济路径 极端降水 空间差异 BCC-CSM2-MR模式 全球陆地 气候变化 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5