1970—2019年全球陆地破坏性地震人员伤亡时空特征及其贡献率分析  

Spatial-temporal Patterns and Influencing Factor Contributions of Casualties from Global Land Destructive Earthquakes in the World(1970—2019)

作　　者：胡小康 史培军[1,2,3] HU Xiaokang;SHI Peijun(Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Emergency Management&Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学应急管理部—教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [3]青海师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《灾害学》2021年第4期163-167,174,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：高等学校学科创新引智基地项目(BP0820003);科技部“第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究”项目(2019QZKK0906)。

摘　　要：基于区域灾害系统理论,梳理了1970—2019年全球陆地破坏性地震灾害数据,运用地理探测器模型量化了地震致灾因子(震中烈度)、承灾体(人口密度、人均GDP)、孕灾环境(海拔、相对高程、坡度)以及房屋损毁对地震人口伤亡的贡献率。结果显示:①1970—2019年全球陆地破坏性地震灾害频次呈现波动上升趋势,地震造成的人员伤亡呈现增加趋势,近20 a来7.0级以下地震造成的伤亡人数有下降趋势。②全球陆地破坏性地震灾害约60%分布于地中海-喜马拉雅地震带,约35%分布在环太平洋地震带。③房屋损毁对地震造成的人口伤亡贡献率最大,其次是震中烈度和人口密度。海拔、相对高程和坡度三者中相对高程对地震造成的伤亡人数贡献率最大。④环太平洋地震带和地中海-喜马拉雅地震带上各个影响因子对地震人口伤亡的贡献率存在差异。Based on regional disaster system theory,we comb the global land destructive earthquake disaster data from 1970 to 2019,and calculate the contributions of earthquake disaster causing factors,which are hazard(epicenter intensity),exposures(population density,per capita GDP)and environments(elevation,relative elevation,slope),on casualties by using the geographical detectors model.The results show that:(1)from 1970 to 2019,the frequency of destructive earthquake disasters in the world fluctuated and increased,and the casualties caused by earthquake catastrophe showed an increasing trend.In the past 20 years,the number of casualties of earthquake disasters below M7.0 showed a downward trend.(2)About 60%of the global land destructive earthquake disasters are distributed in the Mediterranean Himalayan seismic belt and about 35%in the circum-pacific seismic belt.(3)The most important contribution rate to the earthquake is the damage of buildings,followed by the epicenter intensity and population density.Among elevation,relative elevation and slope,relative elevation has the largest contribution to the casualties.(4)The contribution rate of the influence factors on the casualties is different between the circum-pacific seismic belt and the Mediterranean Himalayan seismic belt.

关 键 词：地震 区域灾害系统理论 全球陆地地震 人口伤亡 时空特征 孕灾环境 贡献率 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P954[天文地球—自然地理学]