涿州市地下水埋深分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction on groundwater depth in Zhuozhou City

作　　者：李如意 赵名彦 赵亚锋 刘子辉 石丽丽 LI Ruyi;ZHAO Mingyan;ZHAO Yafeng;LIU Zihui;SHI Lili(Hebei Institute of Water Resources and Research,Shijiazhuang 050057,China;General Station of Soil and Water Conservation of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050011,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省水利科学研究院,河北石家庄050057 [2]河北省水土保持工作总站,河北石家庄050011

出　　处：《水利科学与寒区工程》2021年第5期43-46,共4页Hydro Science And Cold Zone Engineering

基　　金：河北省水利科研与推广计划项目(2018-09)。

摘　　要：涿州市位于拒马河下游,随着张坊引水工程的建立和地下水开采量的不断增加,对涿州市地下水产生了显著影响,因而迫切需要对其地下水埋深变化进行分析。通过分析涿州市2006—2017年浅层地下水动态变化,将GM(1,1)模型应用于地下水埋深模拟,根据2012—2017年实测值和模拟值对模型精度进行检验,并预测2018—2022年的地下水平均埋深值。结果表明:模型拟合结果合格,未来涿州市地下水埋深仍处于下降状态,但预测结果受地下水埋深变化趋势影响较大。掌握埋深变化规律有助于为该地区科学利用地下水资源提供理论依据。Zhuozhou City is located in the lower reaches of Juma River,with the establishment of Zhangfang diversion project and the continuous increase of groundwater extraction,both have great influence on the groundwater in Zhuozhou City,so it is urgent to analyze the change of groundwater depth.By analyzing the dynamic changes of shallow groundwater in Zhuozhou City from 2006 to 2017,the GM(1,1)model was applied to simulate the groundwater depth.According to the measured and simulated values from 2012 to 2017,the accuracy of the model was tested,and the average depth of groundwater in 2018 to 2022 was also predicted.The results show that the model fitting result is qualified,and the groundwater depth of Zhuozhou City is still in a declining state in the future,but the prediction result is greatly affected by the trend of groundwater depth change.Grasping the variation rule of buried depth is helpful to provide theoretical basis for the scientific utilization of groundwater resources in this area.

关 键 词：地下水埋深 GM(1 1)模型 分析及预测 涿州市 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]