COVID-19新冠疫情对全球猕猴桃商贸影响剖析  

Impact of the COVID-19 on global trade of kiwifruit

作　　者：吴麒宇 祁春节[2] 程运江[1] 蔡礼鸿[1] 曾云流 WU Qiyu;QI Chunjie;CHENG Yunjiang;CAI Lihong;ZENG Yunliu(College of Horticulture and Forestry Science,Huazhong Agricultural University/National R&D Center for Citrus Preservation/Key Laboratory of Horticultural Crop Biology and Germplasm Genetic Improvement(Fruit Crops),Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Key Laboratory of Horticultural Plant Biology(Ministry of Education),Wuhan 430070,Hubei,China;College of Economics and Man-agement,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学园艺林学学院·国家柑橘保鲜技术研发专业中心·农业农村部园艺作物生物学与种质创制(果树)重点实验室·园艺植物生物学教育部重点实验室,武汉430070 [2]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《果树学报》2021年第10期1790-1801,共12页Journal of Fruit Science

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFD1000200);湖北省农业科技创新行动项目;华农乡村振兴荆楚行项目(2662021FW010)。

摘　　要：2020年新型冠状病毒疫情相继在各国暴发,由此产生的一系列连锁反应给全球贸易带来了极大阻碍。笔者收集了来自FAO、联合国以及相关国家海关网站的数据,概述了当前全球猕猴桃贸易情况,并对数据构建时间序列模型进行分析,旨在通过模型预测的数据与实际数据对比,阐述新冠疫情对猕猴桃主要进出口国的影响。研究表明,疫情导致猕猴桃主要进出口国在1—3月的贸易额波动较大,尤其是中国在2、3月进口额同比增长了2425%与1380%;1—8月,亚洲以及大洋洲的猕猴桃贸易受疫情影响比欧洲更严重,但随着北美洲与欧洲的疫情发展,市场需求萎缩、供应链阻断、人均GDP下降以及劳动力流动受阻,上述两个市场的猕猴桃贸易极可能在未来受到巨大影响。4月后中国率先走出病毒阴影,文章在末尾结合中国猕猴桃产业发展情况,对中国猕猴桃加大出口份额提出了建议。The global trade of kiwifruit started in New Zealand in the 1950 s,and entered a stage of rapid development afterwards.In 2019,the trade volume of kiwifruit reached 3.46 billion U.S.dollars.The major exporters include New Zealand,Italy,Belgium and Chile,and meanwhile,China,Japan,Belgium and Germany are playing important roles in importing.At the beginning of the 2020,the COVID-19 broke out in many countries one after another.What drove the world economy down was not simply virus itself,but a series of regulations came after.The epidemic led governments to issue lockdown order,which resulted in a chain reaction and global trade shrinking,and the kiwifruit market had been hit without exception.Farmers who got used to JIT mode suffered the impact from both the upstream and downstream of the supply chain.So far,the existing literatures in relative area mainly focus on the macro market level,in which they quote official data and make speculations base on facts.In the meanwhile,there is merely no analysis of specific industries nor has the quantitative analysis of trade data been made.As a result,our study aimed to understand the fluctuation of the kiwifruit trade volume due to the COVID-19 worldwide in an empirical way.A time sequence model was built based on the dataset collected from FAO,UN database and customs website of relevant countries to get the monthly predicted trade value in2020.We selected several most representative import and export countries for analysis,and the results showed that although the total value of kiwifruit trading witnessed a slight drop,the fluctuation was enormously varied from month to month.The most significant import rise appeared in China in February and March,reaching 2425%and 1380%,respectively.In March,the import value in Japan soared by 446%and the export value in New Zealand raised by 167%.In terms of regions,China experienced the raging virus and ushered in the dawn at the end of February.At the beginning of the epidemic,unprecedented strict lockdown measures made it hard to get

关 键 词：猕猴桃 新冠肺炎 全球贸易 时间序列分析 中国猕猴桃产业 

分 类 号：S663.4[农业科学—果树学]