一种新NTDGM模型的数乘特性问题研究  

Study on Parameters Characteristics of a Novel NTDGM Under Multiplicative Transformation

作　　者：马红燕 崔杰[2,3] 孔德财 MA Hong-yan;CUI Jie;KONG De-cai(School of Business,Huaiyin Institute of Technology,Huai'an 223003,China;School of Management Engineering,Huaiyin Institute of Technology,Huai5an 223003,China;School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China)

机构地区：[1]淮阴工学院商学院,江苏淮安223003 [2]淮阴工学院管工学院,江苏淮安223003 [3]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第18期156-161,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(20BGL006)“云制造环境下服务资源供需匹配机制研究”;教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(20YJAZH020)“长江经济带水环境污染物排放量关键影响因素识别、预测建模与协同治理机制设计研究”;江苏高校社会科学基金重大项目(2020SJZDA060)“长三角区域科技创新一体化发展水平评价与提升路径设计”。

摘　　要：为进一步拓展离散灰色模型的应用范围,构建一种新的含时变参数离散灰色模型(NTDGM模型),采用参数包技术分析了该模型参数在系统特征序列经数乘变换前后的量化关系,进而揭示其参数变化规律.研究结果表明:NTDGM模型的建模精度与系统特征序列的数乘变换量无关.研究结论认为:利用数乘变换可在保持该模型精度不变前提下简化其建模过程,有利于提高其建模和实际应用效率.In this paper,a novel discrete grey model with time-varying parameters(NTDGM model) is proposed so as to further improve the modeling accuracy of discrete grey forecasting models.The quantitative relationship of the model parameters before and after the number multiplication transformation of the system feature sequence is analyzed by using the parameter package technique,and the variation law of the parameters is revealed.Research results show that the modeling accuracy of NTDGM model is independent of the number multiplication transformation of the system characteristic sequence.It is concluded that the modeling program can be simplified by using number multiplication transformation on the premise of keeping the accuracy of the novel model constant,which is helpful to improve the efficiency of modeling and practical application of this novel grey model.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 灰色预测模型 离散模型 数乘变换 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]