2021年世界交通运输大会水运学部会议 基于随机森林的船舶避台失败原因分析  

Meeting of the Waterborne Transport Division, World Transport Convention 2021 (WTC 2021) Analysis on failure reasons of ship avoiding typhoon based on random forest

作　　者：王元栋 盛进路[2] 刘琴 WANG Yuandong;SHENG Jinlu;LIU Qin(School of Shipping and Naval Architecture,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;College of Traffic & Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学航运与船舶工程学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2021年第3期47-51,84,共6页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

摘　　要：为提高船舶避台成功率,采用随机森林对船舶避台失败的原因进行分析,并与决策树进行对比。结果表明:随机森林和决策树对船舶避台失败事故的平均诊断率分别为84.23%和75.56%;随机森林对一般事故和重大事故具有更高的诊断率,分别达到90.0%和96.1%。事故原因分析表明:造成船舶避台失败的首要原因是船员责任感不强;船员责任感不强、决策出现差池和船舶日常管理混乱极易导致船舶避台失败事故。本文研究可为船舶实施合理避台措施提供一定的参考。In order to improve the success rate of ship avoiding typhoon,the random forest is adopted to analyze the failure reasons of ship avoiding typhoon,and is compared with the decision tree.The results show that:the average diagnostic rates of the random forest and the decision tree for the failure accidents of ship avoiding typhoon are 84.23%and 75.56%,respectively;the random forest is of higher diagnostic rate for general accidents and serious accidents,and the diagnostic rates reach 90.0%and 96.1%,respectively.The analysis on accident reasons shows that:the primary reason for the failure of ship avoiding typhoon is the lack of crew’s responsibility;the lack of crew’s responsibility,the incorrect decision-making,and the chaotic daily management for ships can easily lead to the failure accidents of ship avoiding typhoon.It can provide reference for the implementation of reasonable measures for ship avoiding typhoon.

关 键 词：船舶避台失败事故 决策树 随机森林 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]