隧道综合超前预报效果及其影响因素分析  

Analysis on Effect and Influencing Factors of Tunnel Comprehensive Advanced Geological Prediction

作　　者：牟元存[1,2] 曹强 高树全[1,2] 刘博 Mu Yuancun;Cao Qiang;Gao Shuquan;Liu Bo(China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co.Ltd.,Chengdu Sichuan 610031,China;Academician Expert Workstation In CREEC,CGS,Chengdu Sichuan 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司,四川成都610031 [2]中国地球物理学会中铁二院院士专家工作站,四川成都610031

出　　处：《工程地球物理学报》2021年第5期603-612,共10页Chinese Journal of Engineering Geophysics

基　　金：中铁二院科研项目(编号:12198008(12-14));编号:KYY2019017(19-20)。

摘　　要：隧道综合超前地质预报是个系统性的工作,做好隧道综合超前地质预报工作,有利于进一步探明掌子面前方的地质情况,降低地质灾害发生的几率和危害程度,最大程度保护好现场一线人员的生命和财产安全。本文通过近2000余公里隧道超前地质预报工作实践并结合一些最新的科研成果,简要回顾了超前预报发展历程,通过设计阶段和实施阶段开展的超前预报工作内容、成功案例的展示、影响预报效果的因素分析等几个方面,对隧道综合超前地质预报工作中预报效果及其影响因素展开论述。得出客观地认识目前隧道超前地质预报技术发展水准,规避影响预报效果的诸多不利因素,有利于推动预报技术的发展和进步。Tunnel comprehensive advance geological prediction is a systematic work,covering such stages as the survey and design,implement and dynamic adjustment stages,involving a variety of prediction methods such as geological survey,geophysical exploration,drilling and advance heading method.There are many influencing factors such as personnel level,raw data quality,strict implementation of management and so on.A good job of tunnel comprehensive advance geological prediction can further ascertain the geological situation in front of the tunnel face,reduce the probability and harm of geological disasters,and protect the life and property safety of front-line personnel to the greatest extent.Based on the practice of tunnel advanced geological prediction of nearly 2000 km and some latest scientific research,the paper briefly reviews the development process of advanced prediction,discusses the prediction effect and its influencing factors in tunnel comprehensive advance geological prediction from the aspects in design and implement stage,display the successful cases,analysis of the influencing factors on the prediction effect.An objective understanding of the current development level of tunnel advanced geological prediction technology and avoiding many unfavorable factors affecting the prediction effect are conducive to promoting the development and progress of prediction technology.

关 键 词：隧道 地质灾害 综合超前地质预报 预报效果 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P631.4[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]