考虑个体风险偏好差异的高速公路出行选择模型  

Model of highway travel selection considering individual risk preference difference

作　　者：马莹莹[1,2] 陆思园 张晓明 魏文术[2] MA Ying-ying;LU Si-yuan;ZHANG Xiao-ming;WEI Wen-shu(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China;Transportation Planning and Design Studio,Guangzhou Urban Planning&Design Survey Research Institute,Guangzhou 510060,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州510640 [2]广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院交通规划设计所,广州510060

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2021年第5期1673-1683,共11页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金项目(2018A030313250).

摘　　要：本文旨在进行节假日高速公路出行特征分析及出行行为决策建模。首先,进行节假日高速公路出行行为特性调查和分析,总共回收有效问卷数量500份;其次,考虑个体风险偏好差异性,提出基于巢式Logit-累积前景理论模型的高速公路出行时段选择模型,进一步了解节假日高速公路出行行为决策;最后,以广东省节假日高速公路为对象进行案例研究,并进行模型精度检验。研究表明:本文模型总体预测误差为14.14%,仅基于巢式Logit模型预测误差约为22.22%。与其他模型相比,本文模型有利于提高预测结果的精度。This paper aims to analyze the travel characteristics of highway on holidays and establish the travel behavior decision-making model.First of all,a total of 500 valid questionnaires were collected from the survey and analysis of highway travel behavior characteristics on holidays.Secondly,considering the difference of individual risk preference,a freeway travel time selection model based on nested logit-cumulative prospect theory model is proposed to further understand highway travel behavior decisionmaking in holidays.Finally,a case study is carried out on the holiday Expressway in Guangdong Province,and the accuracy of the model is tested.The results show that the overall prediction error of the proposed model is 14.14%,and prediction error of the nested logit model is about 22.22%.Compared with other models,the proposed model can improve the accuracy of prediction results.

关 键 词：高速公路 巢式LOGIT模型 累积前景理论 风险偏好系数 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]