可再生能源发电份额对德国市场化电价的影响  

Impact of renewable energy power generation share on Germany’s electricity prices

作　　者：孟思琦 孙仁金[1] 郭风 MENG Siqi;SUN Renjin;GUO Feng(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京),北京102249

出　　处：《资源科学》2021年第8期1562-1573,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BGL014)。

摘　　要：近年来可再生能源研究表明,风能和太阳能发电份额的增加对市场化电价有显著的影响。德国可再生能源发电市场已形成较完善的市场化电价机制,研究德国电价的运作机理有利于推动中国可再生能源市场化电价机制改革。本文通过建立分位数回归模型,估算了不同电价分位数的优序效应,主要分析了风能和太阳能对德国电力市场现货价格的影响。研究表明:(1)风能和太阳能发电量的增加均能带来电价的降低。当考虑以电价中位数的四分位距衡量的电价波动时,对于中等负荷水平,风能发电对平均高峰价格的影响明显大于太阳能发电;在其他情况下,太阳能发电对平均高峰价格的影响更大。(2)用电需求水平较低时,风能发电份额的增加会增加电价波动性;用电需求水平较高时,风能发电份额的增加会降低电价的波动性;用电需求水平中等时,太阳能发电降低电力价格的波动性。(3)支持可再生能源开发整合的政策应在风能和太阳能之间寻求平衡,即形成合理的太阳能、风能的发电份额组合。本文研究了发展较成熟的德国可再生能源发电的市场化运行机理,对中国可在生能源市场化改革有借鉴意义。Renewable energy research in recent years has shown that the increase in the share of wind and solar power generation has a significant impact on market electricity prices.The German renewable energy power market has formed a relatively complete market electricity pricing mechanism.Examining the operating mechanism of German electricity prices is conducive to promoting the marketization reform of electricity pricing of China’s renewable energy power market.This study mainly analyzed the impact of wind and solar energy on spot prices in the German electricity market.It established a quantile regression model to estimate the priority effect of different electricity price quantiles.The research results show that:(1)The increase in wind energy and solar power generation can bring about a reduction in electricity prices,and when considering the fluctuation of electricity prices measured by the interquartile range of the median electricity price,for the medium load level,the impact of wind power generation on the average peak price significantly larger than solar power generation.In other cases,solar power has a greater impact on average peak prices.(2)Depending on the level of total demand,the increase or decrease in the share of wind power generation may increase or curb the volatility of electricity prices under different demand levels.The increase in the share of solar power generation stabilizes the difference in electricity prices under moderate demand levels.(3)Therefore,policies supporting the development and integration of renewable energy should seek a balance between different power generation methods,that is to form a reasonable combination of solar and wind power generation shares.This study examined the mechanism of operation of the relatively mature German renewable energy power market,which is of reference value for the marketization reform of China’s renewable energy.

关 键 词：可再生能源 电力价格 市场化 分位数回归 优序效应 价格波动 德国 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F451.6