基于加权组合模型的地下水水位拟合  

Groundwater Level Fitting Based on Weighted Combination Model

作　　者：陈晶 水青娜 王俊智 田光辉[3] 王心义[1] Chen Jing;Shui Qingna;Wang Junzhi;Tian Guanghui;Wang Xinyi(Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,Henan,China;Shanghai Yaxin Construction Engineering Co.,Ltd,Shanghai 201900,China;Tianjin Geothermal Exploration and Development Designing Institute,Tianjin 300250,China)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学资源环境学院,河南焦作454000 [2]上海亚新建设工程有限公司,上海201900 [3]天津地热勘查开发设计院,天津300250

出　　处：《黄河水利职业技术学院学报》2021年第4期9-13,共5页Journal of Yellow River Conservancy Technical Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金:煤层隐伏露头区上覆热储含水层组多因素致灾程度评价技术研究(41972254)。

摘　　要：分析了灰色系统GM(2,1)模型、指数曲线模型和基于最优加权法的组合模型的计算原理,以河南省巩义市某煤矿地下水水位长期动态观测资料为样本,分别采用3种模型对地下水水位进行了拟合。结果表明,组合模型拟合的平均绝对误差为0.66,平方和误差为7.93,平均绝对百分比误差为0.52,各类误差均低于指数曲线模型和GM(2,1)模型,且加权组合模型拟合的水位与实际水位基本一致。The calculation principle of grey system GM(2,1)model,exponential curve model and combined model based on optimal weighting method were analyzed.Taking long-term dynamic observation data of groundwater level of a coal mine in Gongyi city of Henan province as samples,three models were used to fit groundwater level respectively.The results show that the average absolute error,square sum error and average absolute percentage error of the combined model are 0.66,7.93 and 0.52 respectively,all of which are lower than those of the exponential curve model and GM(2,1)model.The water level fitted by the weighted combined model is basically consistent with the actual water level.

关 键 词：地下水水位拟合 GM(2 1)模型 指数曲线模型 加权组合模型 拟合误差 

分 类 号：TU991.112[建筑科学—市政工程]