基于分布式光伏功率分区拟合的统调负荷预测方法  

Load Forecasting Method Based on Distributed Photovoltaic Power Partition Fitting

作　　者：李振生 孙佳龙 卜晓刚 杜剑行 LI Zhensheng;SUN Jialong;BU Xiaogang;DU Jianxing(State Grid Jibei Electric Co.,Ltd.,Zhangjiakou Power Supply Company,Zhangjiakou 075000,China)

机构地区：[1]国网冀北电力有限公司张家口供电公司,河北张家口075000

出　　处：《电工技术》2021年第15期18-20,共3页Electric Engineering

摘　　要：分布式光伏的大规模接入对地区统调负荷预测准确率带来极大影响,因此提出了一种基于分布式光伏功率分区拟合的统调负荷预测方法。首先将分布式光伏覆盖区域进行分区,针对每个小区域,采用区域内集中式光伏功率预测数据对分布式光伏出力进行类比预测;然后将各个小区域内分布式光伏出力预测数据进行累加得到全地区分布式光伏出力预测值;最后在此基础上对地区统调负荷进行预测。该方法在张家口地区负荷预测工作中取得了良好效果,有效提高了地区统调负荷预测准确率。The large-scale access of distributed photovoltaic has a great impact on the accuracy of regional unified dispatching load forecasting.Therefore,a unified load forecasting method based on distributed photovoltaic power partition fitting is proposed.First,the distributed photovoltaic coverage area is divided,and for each small area,the centralized photovoltaic power prediction data in the region is used to predict the distributed photovoltaic output analogy.Then the distributed photovoltaic output forecast data in each small area is accumulated to obtain the distributed photovoltaic output forecast value of the whole region.Finally,on this basis,the regional unified load forecasting is carried out.This method has achieved good results in the load forecasting work in Zhangjiakou area,and effectively improved the accuracy of regional unified load forecasting.

关 键 词：分布式光伏 分区拟合 功率预测 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]