消纳保障机制下增量配售电公司的投资组合决策  

Portfolio Investment Strategies of Incremental Electricity Distribution and Retail Companies under the Guaranteed Mechanism for Accommodating Renewable Energy Generation

作　　者：李金城 蒋轶澄 江海龙 王海超 林振智[1] 文福拴[1] LI Jincheng;JIANG Yicheng;JIANG Hailong;WANG Haichao;LIN Zhenzhi;WEN Fushuan(School of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China;Anhui Power Exchange Center Company Limited,Hefei 230061,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,杭州市310027 [2]安徽电力交易中心有限公司,合肥市230061

出　　处：《电力建设》2021年第10期139-148,共10页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFB0901100)。

摘　　要：在可再生能源电力消纳保障机制中明确将增量配售电公司纳入消纳责任考核主体。这样,研究消纳责任下增量配售电公司的最优投资决策对其经营发展、消纳保障机制的设计与完善均具有重要意义。在此背景下,文章提出了一种基于投资组合理论和展望理论的增量配售电公司最优组合投资决策方法。首先,对增量配售电公司应对消纳责任的投资决策行为进行成本效益分析,得出各投资行为的收益率和风险。接着,基于投资组合理论构建各投资行为的组合,提出增量配售电公司的组合投资模型。然后,为进一步反映增量配售电公司的真实投资行为,基于展望理论对所提模型进行改进,提出改进组合投资决策模型。最后,以某增量配售电公司为例进行验证分析,算例结果表明所提模型可使其获得最大投资决策效用。Incremental electricity distribution and retail companies are imposed the responsibility in the guaranteed mechanism for accommodating renewable energy generation,and it is hence of great significance to study their optimal investment strategies for business development as well as the design and improvement of the guaranteed mechanism.Given this background,the optimal portfolio investment decision-making method and prospect theory are presented for incremental electricity distribution and retail companies.Firstly,the cost-benefit analysis of the investment decision-making behavior of incremental electricity distribution and retail companies in response to accommodation responsibility is performed for attaining the return rate and risk of each investment behavior.Secondly,a portfolio investment decision-making model of incremental electricity distribution and retail companies is developed.Then,an improved portfolio investment decision-making model based on the prospect theory is built for incremental electricity distribution and retail companies so as to more accurately attain their optimal investment behaviors.Finally,case studies on an incremental electricity distribution and retail company are performed to demonstrate the proposed decision-making model.Simulation results show that the proposed strategies for incremental electricity distribution and retail companies could maximize the utility associated with investment decisionmaking.

关 键 词：可再生能源发电 消纳保障机制 投资组合理论 展望理论 投资组合决策模型 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]