高校突发事件演变机理与应急管理评价  

Evolution Mechanism and Emergency Management of University Emergency

作　　者：李玉飞 刘晓云[2] 刘洋[2] LI Yufei;LIU Xiaoyun;LIU Yang(School of Machinery and Automation,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China;School of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学机械自动化学院,武汉430081 [2]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院,武汉430081

出　　处：《实验室研究与探索》2021年第9期290-295,共6页Research and Exploration In Laboratory

基　　金：教育部高校思想政治工作队伍培训研修中心(郑州大学)思想政治工作队伍专项课题(ZZUKFYB202001)。

摘　　要：厘清高校突发事件演变机理是加强应急管理的前提和基础。从非线性的角度出发,采用突变理论分析高校突发事件的突变特征;构建高校突发事件的双尖点突变模型,阐释高校突发事件的非线性演变机理;将突变理论和模糊数学理论相结合,建立高校突发事件应急管理评价的突变级数模型,并结合实例进行说明。研究结果表明,高校突发事件具有多平衡位置、跳跃性、滞后性、不可达性等特征;高校从安全状态演变为突发事件状态是一种非线性的突变过程;高校突发事件演变过程具有明显的阶段性,可分为稳定量变阶段、失稳质变阶段和稳定恢复阶段。Understanding the evolution mechanism of emergencies in universities is the prerequisite and basis for strengthening emergency management.First,from a non-linear point of view,the catastrophe theory is used to analyse the catastrophe characteristics of emergencies in universities.Second,a double-cusp catastrophe model of university emergencies is constructed to explain the nonlinear evolution mechanism of emergencies in universities.Third,combining catastrophe theory with fuzzy mathematics theory,a catastrophe progression model of emergency management evaluation in universities is established and illustrated with an example.The research results show that university emergencies have the characteristics of multiple equilibrium positions,jumps,lags and unreachability.The evolution of universities from a safe state to an emergency state is a non-linear sudden change process.The evolution process of university emergencies has obvious stages,which can be divided into three stages,stable quantitative change stage,unstable qualitative change stage and stable recovery stage.

关 键 词：高校突发事件 突变理论 应急管理 突变模型 

分 类 号：G647[文化科学—高等教育学]