基于灾害链理论的危机信息需求预测研究  

A Study on Forecasting the Demands of Crisis Information Based on Disaster Chain Theories

作　　者：李卫宁[1] 金舒婷 LI Wei-ning;JIN Shu-ting(College of Business Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学工商管理学院,广东广州510641

出　　处：《情报科学》2021年第9期25-34,共10页Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“代际冲突与认知差异对家族企业传承的影响研究”(71772068);教育部社会科学研究一般项目“认知视角的家族企业传承研究”(17YJA630044)。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】当下我国正处于发展与转型的关键时期,高度不确定性伴随社会快速发展而生。【方法/过程】本文通过文献调研梳理总结了危机信息需求预测有关的国内外研究现状,首次将灾害链理论引入危机信息需求预测研究。首先概述了灾害链和危机信息需求的相关内容,阐述了将灾害链理论应用于危机信息需求预测的可行性,重点探讨基于灾害链理论的一种危机信息需求预测方法,论述该方法的框架和应用问题,并将该方法用于四川茂县“6·24”山体滑坡中受灾群众的救援信息需求预测,最后对比4种危机信息需求预测方法的预测性能。【结果/结论】旨在丰富危机信息需求预测的理论研究框架,拓展灾害链系列理论在灾害领域的应用范围,为政府机构应急信息管理的决策提供依据。【创新/局限】本文提出了基于灾害链理论的危机信息需求预测方法,丰富了危机信息需求预测的理论研究框架。由于资料获取难度较大,难以将得到的预测结果与“6·24”茂县山体滑坡中的实际信息需求对比以检验方法的效度,此预测方法仍需更多的理论和实践检验。【Purpose/significance】At present,China is in a critical period of development and transformation,and a high degree of uncertainty has emerged with the rapid development of society.【Method/process】This paper summarizes the research status of crisis information demand forecasting at home and abroad,introducing the disaster chain theory into the research of crisis information demand forecasting for the first time.The first part gives an overview of the relevant contents of disaster chain and crisis information demand and expounds the feasibility of applying disaster chain theory to crisis information demand prediction;then,focuses on discussing a method of crisis information demand prediction based on disaster chain theory and discusses the framework and application problems of this method in detail;next,applies this method to the rescue information demand of disaster-stricken people in the"6.24"landslide in Maoxian County,Sichuan Province;finally,the forecasting performance of four forecasting methods for crisis information demand is compared.【Result/conclusion】This paper aims to enrich the theoretical framework of crisis information demand forecasting and expand the application scope of disaster chain theory in disaster field.Ultimately achieve the goal of providing basis for government emergency information management decision-making.【Innovation/limitation】This paper proposes a crisis information demand forecasting method based on disaster chain theory,which enriches the theoretical research framework of crisis information demand forecasting.Due to the great difficulty in obtaining data,it is difficult to compare the obtained prediction results with the actual information demand of June 24 Maoxian landslide to test the validity of the method.This prediction method still needs more theoretical and practical tests.

关 键 词：灾害链 危机事件 信息需求 应急管理 信息服务 

分 类 号：G203[文化科学—传播学]