灰色拓扑预测改进及其在热负荷预测中的应用  

Improvement of Grey Topological Prediction and Its Application in Heat Load Prediction

作　　者：付万元 马广兴[1,2] 张宁 FU Wan-yuan;MA Guang-xing;ZHANG Ning(School of Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Technology;Key Laboratory Civil Engineering Structure and Mechanics of Inner Mongolia;Jining No.1 Middle School,Inner Mongolia)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学土木工程学院,内蒙古呼和浩特市010051 [2]内蒙古自治区土木工程结构与力学重点实验室 [3]内蒙古集宁一中

出　　处：《建筑热能通风空调》2021年第8期13-17,103,共6页Building Energy & Environment

基　　金：内蒙古自治区自然科学基金(2017MS(LH)0508)。

摘　　要：针对灰色拓扑预测在供热领域应用中的不足提出了改进,建立了新模型。成功对某高校集中供热系统热负荷的未来值进行了全波形预测。对未来负荷预测值与真实负荷值各216组数据作误差分析,得出平均相对误差为9.294%,验证了模型可靠性和准确性。In view of the shortcomings in the application of heat supply, the author puts forward the improvement of grey topological prediction and establishes a new model. The new model is used to predict the future value of the heating load of the central heating system in a university. Based on the error analysis of 216 sets of data, the average relative error is 9.294%, which verifies the reliability and accuracy of the model.

关 键 词：灰色拓扑预测 GM(1 1) 供热负荷预测 按需供热 

分 类 号：TU832.02[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]