无资料中小流域水文模型的参数移植与数据同化  

Parameter Transfer and Data Assimilation of Hydrological Models in Small and Medium Sized Ungauged Basins

作　　者：麦合木提·图达吉 胡智丹 胡宏昌[1] 周国良[2] 田富强[1] MAHMUT Tudaji;HU Zhidan;HU Hongchang;ZHOU Guoliang;TIAN Fuqiang(Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Information Center,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053,china)

机构地区：[1]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084 [2]水利部信息中心,北京100053

出　　处：《水文》2021年第5期32-37,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题“中小河流精细与智能实用预报模型及参数地理规律”(2018YFC1508103);广东省水利科技创新项目(2020-12)。

摘　　要：利用一种分布式水文模型参数的并行优化算法,获取北江流域新安江模型参数的分布情况,得出了蓄水容量曲线指数与流域面积的指数型回归方程,并应用到无资料流域。针对有高时间分辨率的气象数据,但没有相对应水文参数的流域,研究了水文参数在不同时间尺度上的转换方法,提高了流域低时间尺度上的预报精度。通过集合卡尔曼滤波,利用逐日实测径流数据实现了对低时间尺度径流预报结果和水文参数的实时校正,有效提高了水文模型的短期预报精度。上述方法在珠江支流的北江流域得到了验证和应用,对其它无资料流域的水文预报有一定借鉴意义。Parameter transfer and data assimilation are effective methods for flood prediction in ungauged basins. This paper applied a parallel optimization method of distributed hydrological model parameters to obtain the distribution of the parameters of Xin’anjiang Model in Beijiang basin. The exponential regression equation of the curve index of water storage capacity and the basin area was obtained based on the distribution law of the parameters, and applied to the ungauged basins. It also studied the conversion method of hydrological parameters on different time scales, which would improve the prediction accuracy on low time scales. The real-time correction of hydrological prediction results and hydrological parameters in low time scale is realized by using the measured runoff data, which effectively improves the short-term prediction accuracy of hydrological model. The above methods have been verified and applied in the Beijiang River basin, and have certain reference significance for other ungauged basins.

关 键 词：无资料流域 并行优化 参数移植 时间尺度转换 数据同化 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]