Assessing resource vulnerability quadrants under changing precipitation trends in Uttarakhand,Central Himalayan region  

作　　者：Ayushi VLJHANI Vinay Shankar Prasad SINHA Mini GOVINDAN 

机构地区：[1]Department of Natural Resources,TERI School of Advanced Studies,10 Institutional Area,Vasant Kunj New Delhi 110070,India [2]The Energy and Resources Institute,India Habitat Centre,New Delhi 110003,India

出　　处：《Journal of Mountain Science》2021年第10期2722-2741,共20页山地科学学报（英文）

基　　金：Uttarakhand Jal Sansthan(UJS)for providing support facilities for the study under the“National Mission on Himalayan Studies(NMHS)”project titled“Water Resource Management through Spring and Catchment Rejuvenation in Uttarakhand for Improving Water Security”funded by the Ministry of Environment,Forest&Climate Change(Mo EF&CC),Go I,(Ref.No.:GBPNI/NMHS-2018-19/MG2)。

摘　　要：The Central Himalayan region is vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change and characterized by regional climatic conditions.The livelihood of the mountain communities across the Himalaya is at risk owing to the consequences of variable precipitation patterns.There exists limited empirical research on precipitation variability due to inadequate hydro-meteorological stations at highaltitude regions.The study uses a novel methodology which integrates precipitation variability with resource sensitivity over the three verticals of Central Himalaya:Himadri,Himachal and Shivaliks and across four major river basins:Yamuna,Upper Ganga,Ghaghar and Ramganga.The magnitude of the significant precipitation trends was estimated through time series analysis at a 95%confidence interval.To assess the sensitivity of natural resources(forest,water and land)and human resources,fourteen mountain-specific indicators were identified which captured resource index using data standardization and principal component analysis.Sen’s slope and Resource index were plotted in a 2D Cartesian coordinate to draw precipitation-resource quadrants with their effective coverage area:High Precipitation and Scarce Resources(35.92%);Low Precipitation and Abundant Resources(30.10%);Low Precipitation and Scarce Resources(22.33%)and High Precipitation and Abundant Resources(11.65%).This helped in developing quadrant-specific adaptation strategies under regional variability of precipitation.The methodology and the research findings will certainly assist water experts,resource managers and policy makers to strengthen adaptive capacity and improve the resilience of vulnerable communities across Himalaya.

关 键 词：Climate Change Trend analysis Resource-quadrant VULNERABILITY Adaptation Central Himalaya 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]