河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率变化及预测分析  

Changes and prediction analysis of the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province

作　　者：张俊清[1] 郭亮 师灿南 王军[2] ZHANG Junqing;GUO Liang;SHI Cannan;WANG Jun(The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450000, China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学第三附属医院、河南省妇幼保健院医务部,郑州450000 [2]郑州大学第三附属医院、河南省妇幼保健院院办,郑州450000

出　　处：《中国中西医结合儿科学》2021年第5期428-431,共4页Chinese Pediatrics of Integrated Traditional and Western Medicine

基　　金：河南省医学科技攻关计划省部共建项目(SBGJ2018048)。

摘　　要：目的对河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率进行分析,并对其发展情况进行预测。方法本文对2005~2017河南省婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率进行描述分析,并选用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型进行统计分析。结果2005~2017年河南省全省、城市及农村的婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率均呈下降趋势,但城乡差异和地域差异明显,灰色预测模型的拟合效果均较好。结论GM(1,1)模型适用于对婴儿死亡率和5岁以下儿童死亡率指标的预测,拟合精度均较高;预测未来三年各指标将继续逐年下降。Objective To analyze the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province,and to predict its trend.Methods A descriptive analysis was made in the mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in Henan Province between 2005 and 2017,and GM(1,1)gray prediction model was used to make a statistical analysis.Results The mortality of infants and children under 5 years old in the whole province(cities and the countryside)had a trend of decrease,but the differences between cities and the countryside,and among different areas were significant;the fitting effect of the gray prediction model was quite good.1)model fitting was good.Conclusion GM(1,1)model is suitable for the prediction of the mortality indexes in infants and children under 5 years old,and the fitting precision is high.It is predicted that the indexes will keep decreasing year by year in the following three years.

关 键 词：婴儿死亡率 5岁以下儿童死亡率 河南省 GM(1 1)模型 预测分析 

分 类 号：R821.36[医药卫生—临床医学]