基于PCBN模型盾构下穿既有隧道施工安全风险评价  

Construction Safety Risk Assessment for Shield Tunneling underneath Existing Tunnel Based on Pair-Copula Bayesian Network Model

作　　者：曾铁梅 刘茜[2] 冯宗宝 陈虹宇[3] 吴贤国[2] ZENG Tiemei;LIU Xi;FENG Zongbao;CHEN Hongyu;WU Xianguo(Wuhan Metro Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430040,Hubei,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,Hubei,China;School of Civil Engineering and Environment,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore City 639798,Singapore)

机构地区：[1]武汉地铁集团有限公司,湖北武汉430040 [2]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]新加坡南洋理工大学土木工程与环境学院,新加坡639798

出　　处：《隧道建设（中英文）》2021年第10期1692-1698,共7页Tunnel Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51778262,71571078,51308240)。

摘　　要：为更全面准确地评估盾构下穿既有隧道施工过程中的相互作用风险,提出一种基于Pair-Copula贝叶斯(Pair-Copula Bayesian network,PCBN)模型的盾构下穿既有隧道施工风险评价方法。建立一套较为完善的盾构下穿既有隧道施工风险评价体系,将贝叶斯网络模型的不确定推理与Pair-Copula理论对于相关性的处理优势相结合,构建盾构下穿既有隧道施工风险评价PCBN模型,实现风险因素复杂依赖关系精确建模和评价,为盾构近接施工安全分析和管控提供有效方法。依托于武汉某隧道下穿工程进行实例分析,基于所提出的PCBN模型进行风险分析和指标相关性分析,确定工程的施工风险状态以及与施工风险相关性较高的关键风险因素,验证了本研究提出的评价方法的有效性和合理性。A new method based on Pair-Copula Bayesian network(PCBN)model is proposed to accurately evaluate the interaction risk of shield tunneling underneath an existing tunnel.First,a relatively perfect risk evaluation system is established for shield tunneling underneath existing tunnels.Second,the uncertain reasoning of the Bayesian network model is enhanced using Copula theory to deal with correlations,establishing a PCBN model of construction risk evaluation for shield tunneling underneath the existing tunnel,thus realizing the accurate modeling of complex dependent relations of risk factors and providing a practical safety analysis and management of shield tunneling adjacent to buildings/structures.Finally,the model is implemented on a shield tunnel crossing underneath an existing tunnel to conduct risk and index correlation analysis.The results show the construction risk state of the project and critical risk factors highly correlated with the construction risk and verify the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed evaluation method.

关 键 词：盾构隧道 下穿施工 既有隧道 安全风险 Pair-Copula贝叶斯模型 风险评价 风险因素 

分 类 号：U455.43[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]