基于改进栈式自编码算法的中期负荷预测研究  

Research on Medium Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Improved Stacked Auto-Encode

作　　者：宣菊琴 郑洁云 陈波 陈强 陈晓彬 林婷婷 XUAN Juqin;ZHEN Jieyun;CHEN Bo;CHEN Qiang;CHEN Xiaobin;LIN Tingting(State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd,Fuzhou Fujian 350003,China;State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Economic and Technological Research Institute,Fuzhou Fujian 350012,China;State Grid Fuzhou Power Supply Company,Fuzhou Fujian 350009,China;State Grid Longyan Power Supply Company,Longyan Fujian 364031,China)

机构地区：[1]国网福建省电力有限公司,福建福州350003 [2]国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,福建福州350012 [3]国网福州供电公司,福建福州350009 [4]国网龙岩供电公司,福建龙岩364031

出　　处：《电子器件》2021年第5期1190-1197,共8页Chinese Journal of Electron Devices

基　　金：国网福建省电力有限公司科技项目(52130N190003)。

摘　　要：综合考虑影响电力系统中期负荷预测的各个因素并提高预测精度,提出了基于改进栈式自编码算法的中期负荷预测方法。利用ICA进行特征提取,筛选主导的影响因素并对数据进行归一化处理,结合模糊理论构建气温因素的隶属度关系,通过参数自适应微分进化算法对栈式自编码算法参数展开在线优化,进而匹配最佳基于改进栈式自编码算法的组合中期负荷预测模型,并展开案例分析。其结果表明:该改进算法通过影响因素筛选、参数选择与优化,能够有效避免参数选择的盲目性,将气温动态因素进行模糊化处理,能够进一步提高预测精度,其预测结果优于PSO-SVM算法,与实际结果更为接近,且稳定性好,为电力系统负荷预测提供了重要手段。Considering all the factors affecting the medium term load forecasting and improving the forecasting accuracy,a medium term load prediction method based on improved stacked auto-encode is proposed.Firstly,the mathematical model of ICA is constructed to extract the characteristic quantity,screen out the factors affecting the power system load and normalize it.Then,the membership relationship of temperature factors is constructed combined with fuzzy theory.The parameters of stacked auto-encoder are optimized online by adaptive differential algorithm.Finally,the combined medium term load forecasting model based on improved stacked auto-encode is applied to case analysis.The results show that the improved algorithm can effectively avoid the blindness of parameter selection through influencing factor selection,parameter selection and optimization.The temperature value factor can be fuzzified to further improve the prediction accuracy.Its prediction results are better than the PSO-SVM algorithm,which is closer to the actual results.So it has a good stability.This paper provides an important means for power system load prediction.

关 键 词：独立分量分析 自适应微分算法 模糊理论 栈式自编码 负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM93[电气工程—电力电子与电力传动]