基于GRACE卫星数据的汉江流域旱情反演及影响因素定量分析  

Inversion of Drought Events and Quantitative Analysis of Influencing Factors in Hanjiang River Basin Based on GRACE Satellite Data

作　　者：韩昊宇 丁文峰[1,2] 许文涛 康靖羚[1,2] HAN Hao-yu;DING Wen-feng;XU Wen-tao;KANG Jing-ling(Soil and Water Conservation Department,Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010, China;Research Center on Mountain Torrent & Geologic Disaster Prevention of Ministry of Water Resources, Wuhan 430010, China)

机构地区：[1]长江科学院水土保持研究所,武汉430010 [2]水利部山洪地质灾害防治工程技术研究中心,武汉430010

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2021年第11期44-51,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(CKSF2019185/TB);国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510705-05)。

摘　　要：气候变化和人类活动对汉江流域旱情有重要影响。利用卫星时变重力场反演地面水储量可以弥补传统流域水储量监测的缺陷。以GRACE卫星数据为基础,采用水储量亏损方法建立模型反演汉江流域2004—2014年间干旱事件,结合多源卫星数据和居民用水量数据,定量分析了气候变化和人类活动对汉江流域干旱事件的影响。结果表明,汉江流域2006、2007、2011、2013年分别发生了干旱事件,降雨、蒸发、人类活动(水库蓄水和居民用水量)等变量与陆地水储量变化显著相关,气候变化对4场干旱事件发生的贡献率分别为0.41、0.43、0.36、0.36,人类活动对4场干旱事件发生的贡献率分别为0.59、0.57、0.65、0.64,贡献度的趋势表明人类活动对汉江流域干旱事件的影响在不断增强。Climate change and human activities have considerable influences on the drought events in Hanjiang River basin.The inversion of terrestrial water storage by using remote sensing technologies can make up the drawbacks of traditional observation techniques.The drought events in Hanjiang River Basin from 2004 to 2014 are identied by water storage decits based on GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)satellite data,and the impact of drought events on the water balance change is quantitatively analyzed by using multi-satellite data and water use data.Results demonstrate that drought events occurred in Hanjiang River Basin in 2006,2007,2011 and 2013.Rainfall,evaporation,and human activity(reservoir operation and water withdrawals)were significantly correlated with terrestrial water storage changes at annual scale.The rates of contribution of climate change to drought events were 0.41,0.43,0.36 and 0.36,respectively,while the rates of contribution of human activities to the drought events were 0.59,0.57,0.65 and 0.64,respectively.The trends of contribution rate implies an increasing influence of human activities on drought events in the Hanjiang River Basin.

关 键 词：GRACE 水储量亏损 干旱 气候变化 人类活动 汉江流域 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]