农产品供应链物流风险模型研究  

Research on the Logistics Risk Model of Agricultural Product Supply Chain

作　　者：冉文学 周莲 RAN Wen-xue;ZHOU Lian(School of Logistics,Yunnan University of Finance&Economics,Kunming,Yunnan 650221)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学物流学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《供应链管理》2021年第10期48-59,共12页SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于轮询控制机理的电子商务环境下物流中心订单分拣系统研究”(71661029)。

摘　　要：农产品经济在我国拥有巨大的发展空间和潜力,但在农产品经济的发展中存在着众多影响总体供应链风险水平的因素。为了对农产品物流风险进行分析,文章建立了CVaR模型,针对物流供货风险进行模拟分析,以期为农产品物流风险控制提供参考,进一步减少风险损失。研究发现,采用联合决策确定农产品供应链各物流节点的订货水平可以有效地降低农产品供应链的总体物流风险水平。There is still a huge development space and potential for agricultural product economy in China,but there are many factors in the development of agricultural product economy that will affect the overall supply chain risk level.In order to analyze the logistics risk of agricultural products to a certain extent,the CVaR model is established for the simulation analysis of logistics supply risk and to provide reference for the risk control of agricultural products logistics,and further reduce the risk loss.It is found that the joint decision-making to determine the order level of each logistics node in the agricultural product supply chain will effectively reduce the overall logistics risk level of the agricultural product supply chain.

关 键 词：农产品供应链 CVAR模型 风险协调 

分 类 号：F252.3[经济管理—国民经济]