分离质量因素的中国大米进口需求价格弹性研究  

A study on price elasticity of rice import demand in China after separating quality factors

作　　者：高澜 朱再清[1] GAO Lan;ZHU Zaiqing

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《世界农业》2021年第11期12-22,118,共12页World Agriculture

基　　金：华中农业大学校级教改项目“课程思政的研究与实践——基于国际贸易类课程”(2019031)。

摘　　要：国际市场是中国大米供给的重要来源,研究质量因素分离后的进口需求价格弹性有利于寻求稳定的市场来源。本文基于嵌套Logit模型测度了2000—2019年中国进口大米的总体质量以及进口自14个主要来源国的大米质量,对比质量因素分离前后的需求价格弹性。研究发现:中国进口大米质量呈总体下降趋势,质量对大米进口具有明显的正向作用,且弹性较大;忽视质量因素会导致价格弹性系数被低估;分离质量因素后的中国进口大米缺乏价格弹性;中国从老挝、缅甸、菲律宾、俄罗斯进口的大米富有价格弹性,但质量波动较大,从泰国和巴基斯坦进口的大米缺乏弹性,质量较稳定。基于研究结论及成本和质量的考虑,中国应注重从泰国、巴基斯坦进口大米。International market is an important source of China’s rice supply.Research on the elasticity of import demand including quality factors is conducive to finding a stable market source.Based on the nested Logit model,this paper measures the total quality of China’s rice imported from the world and 14 major countries during the year 2000 to 2019,comparing the price elasticity before and after the separation of quality factors.The results show that the quality of imports shows an overall downward trend and quality has a significant positive effect on rice import,and the elasticity is large.Ignoring the quality factor will lead to the underestimation of price elasticity coefficient.After separating the quality factors,China’s imported rice lacks price elasticity.China’s rice imported from Laos,Myanmar,Philippiness,Russia and other countries is of high price elasticity,but the quality fluctuates greatly,and the rice imported from Thailand and Pakistan lacks elasticity,but has relatively high and stable quality.Based on cost and quality considerations,China should import more rice from Thailand and Pakistan.

关 键 词：进口来源 质量因素 嵌套Logit模型 需求价格弹性 大米 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62